#Gas费影响 Gas fees are a core cost indicator in the crypto market (especially within the Ethereum ecosystem), and their fluctuations directly impact on-chain activities and market sentiment. They may become one of the auxiliary indicators for judging bull and bear cycles, but should be assessed in conjunction with other data.

1️⃣ Market Activity and Cost Pressure: When gas fees surge, user transaction costs spike, which may suppress high-frequency interactions in DeFi, NFTs, etc., leading to a decline in on-chain activity, reflecting an overheated or congested market (e.g., during the peak of the 2021 bull market, the median gas fee exceeded 200 Gwei); conversely, sustained low gas fees (e.g., dropping below 20 Gwei in 2024) may indicate market cooling or the effectiveness of expansion plans (such as the proliferation of Layer 2). If this is accompanied by a shrinkage in trading volume, it may signal a bear market.

2️⃣ Ecosystem Health and Innovation Drive: A low gas fee environment is conducive to attracting developers and users to participate in innovative applications (e.g., Curve V2 optimizing capital efficiency), promoting ecosystem prosperity and long-term support for a bull market; however, if gas fees remain low for an extended period without a corresponding increase in on-chain activity, it may reflect weak demand, leading into a bear market adjustment phase.

3️⃣ Correlation with Other Indicators: Gas fees often correlate with indicators such as stablecoin liquidity and net inflow to exchanges. For example, a sharp drop in gas fees alongside a surge in stablecoin market capitalization may indicate that funds are poised for movement; if gas fees rise again but the funding rates diverge from the open interest in contracts, there may be a risk of overheating in leverage.

Gas fees can serve as an indirect signal for bull and bear cycles, but their unidimensional limitation is evident. They need to be considered alongside macroeconomic factors (such as M2 liquidity), derivatives data, and on-chain behavior for a comprehensive assessment, avoiding misinterpretation of short-term fluctuations.