The upward trend will not change. The weekly and monthly charts have issued obvious buy signals. Patience is required until the adjustment ends, after which the market will start the second wave of the upward trend. The only support for holding positions now is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have entered a downward channel. Under the scenario of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, the RMB exchange rate will certainly decline. As long as the RMB remains stable, the A-share market will definitely have peaks. In the medium to long term, the outlook is not pessimistic. The medium to long-term indicators have strong support, the weekly technical indicators are significantly rising, and the monthly indicators are also turning upwards. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the external environment, the optimistic trend of A-shares will not change, and the main strategy should continue to be bullish.
The short-term index has a requirement for consolidation. The previous volume increase has exhausted the momentum for further upward movement. The consolidation may take longer, and there is momentum for a continued downward movement in the short term, with 3300 points being highly attractive. In the absence of a clear direction in the short term, it is best to choose a half-position operation. Although various hotspots in the market are emerging, the index is above the ten-day and five-day moving averages, and the trading volume is gradually shrinking, indicating that funds are stabilizing and becoming more rational. It is somewhat difficult to break this balance again in the short term. Above 3300 points, the financing amount has soared significantly, and external funds are continuously entering, yet the index still does not respond, indicating that the short-term trend is somewhat pessimistic.
The medium to long-term outlook is optimistic for an upward trend, while the short-term is bearish. External positive factors are needed to break this deadlock; otherwise, it will be difficult to find direction. The financing amount has surged significantly, and external funds have already awakened and are rushing in. Institutions and funds did not react to the first wave of the rise and have started to continuously increase their positions in the second wave. However, the index remains lukewarm. As the market continues to heat up, the reduction of industrial capital holdings is also intensifying, while obedient funds are maintaining market stability. As a result, the market trend is not very satisfactory.
There is a force of short selling in the market that continues without pause, coupled with the ongoing reduction of industrial capital holdings, leading to a significant probability of a downturn in the short term. The medium-term outlook is optimistic, while the short-term is bearish. For the safety of funds, avoid frequently changing stocks; choose excellent stocks supported by performance and hold them patiently. For short-term funds, it is better to wait and see, and enter the market once the direction of the index is clear.