Context and launch
Trump Coin ($TRUMP) is a memecoin launched on January 17, 2025, days before Donald Trump's presidential inauguration, through CIC Digital LLC (affiliated with the Trump Organization) and Fight Fight Fight LLC. Built on the Solana blockchain, the token debuted with a market cap that quickly climbed to over $14.5 billion within 48 hours, peaking at $75 per token. However, its value has since dropped significantly, hovering around $20-$40 in recent weeks, with a current market cap estimated at $6-$8 billion (based on rough data from sources such as CoinMarketCap). This analysis seeks to understand why it has failed to maintain its initial momentum and faces challenges in “taking off” in a sustained manner.
Key Factors Affecting Trump Coin
Speculative nature of memecoins
TRUMP, as a memecoin, lacks intrinsic utility or a practical use case (e.g., it is not a transactional currency or governance token like World Liberty Financial [$WLF]). Its value depends solely on hype and market sentiment.
The launch of $MELANIA (the Melania Trump memecoin) soon after diluted interest, dividing investors’ attention and causing an initial 50% drop in $TRUMP. This highlights the fragility of memecoins in the face of competition and saturation.
Concentration of supply
80% of the total supply (800 million out of 1 billion total tokens) is controlled by CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight LLC, with a three-year unlocking schedule. While this prevents an immediate “rug pull,” it does create distrust among retail investors, who fear that insiders could manipulate the price or flood the market in the future.
This "tokenomics" structure has been criticized by analysts such as K33, who consider it "horrible" for a modern memecoin, as it limits decentralization and favors creators.
Volatility and loss of confidence
After peaking at $75, it lost more than 50% of its value in days, falling below $40 following the launch of $MELANIA and the emergence of more than 700 fake tokens imitating its name. This volatility reflects pure speculation and a lack of fundamentals.
Chainalysis data indicates that while large investors (“whales”) have made millions, approximately 200,000 small wallets have lost money, suggesting a scheme where retailers are the most affected.
Regulatory and ethical pressure
The direct association with Donald Trump, now US president, has raised ethical and legal concerns. Experts such as Puja Ohlhaver (Harvard) warn that $TRUMP could be a channel for foreign influences or conflicts of interest, especially given Trump's control over regulators such as the SEC (with pro-crypto Paul Atkins as its new head).
Although Trump promised a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies, his focus on $TRUMP has been seen as a "mockery" by some in the industry (e.g., Danny Scott of CoinCorner), damaging the credibility of the sector.
Competition and market saturation
$TRUMP It competes with established memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, which have larger communities and a stronger track record. It also faces pressure from other Trump family projects, such as $WLF and $MELANIA.
The proliferation of fake tokens (more than 200 bearing Trump family names) has confused investors and diluted the brand.
Initial profits vs sustainability
The creators of TRUMP have amassed between $86 and $100 million in trading fees in less than two weeks (according to Reuters), thanks to their integration with the Meteora exchange. However, this model primarily benefits insiders, not holders, which limits organic growth.
Future perspectives
Short-term: TRUMP could see rallies if Trump or his team generates new hype (e.g., social media ads or benefits for holders). However, his reliance on the "cult of personality" makes him vulnerable to market fatigue.
Long-term: Without real utility or a strong decentralized community, TRUMP risks becoming another forgotten memecoin, especially if the Trump administration fails to deliver on its broader crypto promises (e.g., Bitcoin strategic reserves).
Technical Support: Posts on X suggest technical analysis with trend lines, but without specific data, we assume the price is in a consolidation phase after the fall, possibly between $20-$30 as support.
Conclusion
Trump Coin has failed to take off in a sustained manner due to its speculative nature, unfavorable tokenomics, market saturation, and the ethical and regulatory controversies linked to its creator. While it has generated paper wealth for the Trump family and quick profits for a few whales, its design and context make it a high-risk asset with little transformative potential in the crypto landscape.
