Introduction: When Trump's Peace Negotiations Collide with the EU's 'Crypto Tax Reform'
As Trump announces plans to talk with Putin to end the Ukraine conflict, European leaders find themselves in a dilemma: if the US-led peace agreement bypasses the EU, the latter will be forced to bear the massive post-war reconstruction and defense costs alone. Facing a defense budget gap of up to 500 billion euros over the next decade, the EU is looking towards a new emerging field—cryptocurrency taxation.
From Germany's 45% short-term trading tax to Cyprus's zero tax rate 'tax haven', from the European Central Bank's veto of Bitcoin reserves to the secret layout of the Czech Republic, this tax reform is not only a fiscal game but also a covert war over crypto sovereignty. Trump's 'diplomatic raid' is becoming a key variable that tears apart the consensus on EU tax reform.
1. The Trump Variable: How to Leverage the 'Peace Agreement' to Drive EU Tax Reform?
The Ukraine peace negotiations promoted by Trump are essentially a 'surgical operation' targeting the economic lifeblood of Europe.
1. The 'Fiscal Black Hole' of Defense Spending
Data Impact:
EU defense spending has surged from 200 billion euros in 2020 to 320 billion euros in 2024, accounting for 2% of GDP. Von der Leyen proposed raising this ratio to 3%, which means an additional investment of over 1.5 trillion euros over the next decade.
Financing Dilemma:
About 70% of incremental funds rely on debt issuance, while the remaining portion will be passed on to member countries—tax increases have become a certainty. Due to their anonymity and cross-border liquidity, cryptocurrencies have become ideal targets for countries to fill their fiscal gaps.
2. Trump's 'Pulling the Rug Out'
Security Dependence Eases:
If the peace agreement led by the United States weakens the EU's geopolitical discourse power, Germany, France, and other 'fiscal powerhouse countries' will be forced to bear more defense costs.
Chain Reaction:
High-tax countries like the Netherlands and Denmark may further raise crypto tax rates (such as the Netherlands' 36% assumed income tax), while the zero tax rate policies of 'tax havens' like Cyprus and Romania may face unified liquidation by the EU.
2. A Torn EU: From 36% to Zero Tax Rate 'Crypto Tax Bracket'
The differences in tax policies within the EU reflect the strategic divergences of member states regarding the crypto industry.
1. High Tax Camp: The 'Floodgate' of Fiscal Pressure
Germany (45% short-term trading tax):
Imposing high income taxes on cryptocurrency gains held for less than a year, aimed at curbing speculation.
Denmark (comprehensive tax rate 37%):
Incorporating crypto income into the 'Universal Welfare Fund' through a four-tier progressive tax system, with tax revenue surging 210% year-on-year in 2023.
Netherlands (36% assumed income tax):
Regardless of whether they sell, holding crypto assets will be taxed based on virtual appreciation, triggering a large-scale asset outflow to Luxembourg and Portugal.
2. Tax Havens: The 'Gray Chips' of Sovereign Games
Cyprus (long-term holding 0%):
Attracting crypto companies to settle through tax amnesty, the number of registered blockchain companies increased by 47% in 2023.
Czech Republic (three years tax exemption):
The central bank secretly studies Bitcoin reserves, viewed by outsiders as a 'defensive policy' against the unified tax reforms in the eurozone.
Portugal (one year tax exemption):
Becoming a hub for European crypto funds through loose policies, managing assets exceeding 30 billion euros.
3. Tax Reform Deadlock: Unification vs. Sovereignty
French Initiative:
Promote the establishment of a minimum crypto tax rate (e.g., 20%) by the EU to curb the siphoning effect of 'tax havens'.
Small Countries Strike Back:
Cyprus and Malta jointly declare, emphasizing that 'tax sovereignty is the cornerstone of the EU,' refusing to sacrifice economic growth to fill the fiscal deficits of major powers.
3. Bitcoin Reserves: The 'Silent War' of the European Central Bank
When multiple U.S. states promote Bitcoin to be included in fiscal reserves, the EU's hesitation exposes deep contradictions.
1. The 'Negativism' of the European Central Bank
Lagarde warns:
"Bitcoin is highly associated with money laundering risks, and it is impossible to enter EU reserves"—this statement directly targets the tentative layouts in the Czech Republic and Norway.
Norway's 'Curve Entry':
Sovereign funds indirectly hold Bitcoin by holding shares of MicroStrategy, worth over 600 million dollars, accounting for 0.4% of its equity investment.
2. Trump's 'Crypto Lever'
U.S. Demonstration Effect:
Texas and Utah legislating to promote Bitcoin treasury reserves; if the Trump federal government follows suit, small EU countries will accelerate 'dark operations'.
Capital Migration Threat:
European crypto companies have begun to relocate their headquarters to Dubai and Singapore. According to calculations by Société Générale, a unified tax reform could lead to a 15% loss of crypto capital from the EU.
4. Future Simulation: The Fate of EU Crypto Under Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Trump's victory, radicalization of EU tax reform.
Logical Chain:
The U.S. reduces defense commitments to Europe → The EU is forced into debt financing → Crypto tax is uniformly raised to 25%+, tax haven policies are forcibly abolished.
Consequences:
Capital flight occurs in Portugal and Cyprus, with the East European crypto industry shrinking by 30%.
Scenario 2: EU division, tax sovereignty firmly held.
Logical Chain:
France and Germany cannot persuade small countries → Tax reform stagnates → Forms a dual structure of 'high tax economies + tax havens'.
Consequences:
Luxembourg and Malta have become European crypto hubs, but the EU's overall competitiveness lags behind the U.S. and Asia.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin Reserves 'Breaking the Ice'
Logical Chain:
Czech Republic and Norway secretly increase Bitcoin holdings → Lagarde compromises → EU establishes a 5% crypto reserve pilot.
Consequences:
Sovereign funds entering promote Bitcoin compliance, but high tax rates still suppress private investor returns.
The dilemma of the EU's crypto tax reform is, in essence, a microcosm of sovereign games in the tide of globalization retreat.
As Trump uses diplomatic leverage to shake European finances, small countries counter national unified tax reforms with zero tax rates, and as Bitcoin hovers outside central bank treasuries, this battle has long surpassed the technical debate of 'whether or not to tax' and points directly to a core proposition: in the digital age, whoever holds the rule-making power over crypto assets holds the lifeblood of the future economy.
For ordinary investors, the only certainty is that—until answers are found in the EU, their wallets will always be suspended on a tightrope between '36%' and 'zero'.
Disclaimer: The contents of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors should rationally consider cryptocurrency investments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and should not blindly follow trends.