$ETH Why do I still insist that the bull market is ongoing?

One reason is ➠ there is no kind-hearted person who would distribute stocks at high prices during a sideways market. The longer the high-price sideways consolidation lasts, the greater the cost for the main players. The chips are not distributed during high-price sideways consolidation because it simply does not stimulate the buying desire of the crowd. Instead, over time, the crowd accumulates more and more chips, making distribution difficult.

Distribution usually occurs during a sharp rise or after a sharp decline in a sideways market. During a sharp rise, many will chase the price, and then during a sharp decline, a portion of these chips get locked in. Many who chased the rise will be confused and hesitant to sell at a loss. After a sharp decline, many will look at the previous high, which is also a stage for the main players to distribute stocks. Why is the top usually so steep? The descent is mainly a symmetrical Christmas tree? The front is support, and the back is just a bait for distribution.

Since this is a market, there will certainly be exceptions, but exceptions are very occasional, often when you are unaware of the strength of a particular trader and what unexpected thoughts they might have (for example, wanting to achieve something big but failing), or when the market encounters a black swan event.

For example, there was once a counterfeit trader who consolidated at a high price, and in the end, the trader went bankrupt...

Additionally, in situations involving black swan events, traders are usually more adept at riding the trend than retail investors.

Please note, this is just one reason; any single factor can only serve as a reference and cannot be a decisive factor. Multiple reference factors need to be combined to serve as a decisive factor, and it is also a matter of probability. The reason for sharing this indicator today is that many have been asking about it. From both a human nature and practical perspective, the probability of long-term sideways consolidation at a high price being a top is very low. Also, does the top in 2021 count as a long-term sideways consolidation at a high price?

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