#TradeFi革命 Why do I still insist that the bull market is ongoing?
One reason is ➠ there is no good person in this world who would distribute shares at a high level during a period of sideways trading. The longer the sideways trading at a high level lasts, the greater the cost for the main players. Shares are not distributed during high-level sideways trading because it does not stimulate the purchasing desire of the masses; instead, over time, more and more shares are accumulated by the masses. How to distribute?
Distribution usually occurs during a sharp rise or after a sharp drop during a sideways phase. During a sharp rise, many will chase the price up, then during a sharp drop, this portion of shares is locked in, leaving many who chased the price confused and unable to sell at a loss. After the sharp drop, many will look at the previous highs, which is also a stage for the main players to distribute shares. Why is the top usually steep? It comes down primarily like a symmetrical Christmas tree? The front acts as support, while the back serves as bait for distribution.
Since this is a market, there will naturally be exceptions, but exceptions are very random, occurring when you are unaware of the true strength of a particular stockholder or some unexpected ideas (for example, wanting to do something big but unable to), or when the market encounters a black swan event.
For instance, there was once a counterfeit stockholder that consolidated at a high level, and in the end, the stockholder went bankrupt...
Additionally, typically when facing a black swan event, stockholders will adapt to the situation better than retail investors.
Please note, this is just one reason; any single factor can only be a reference and cannot be a decisive factor. Multiple reference factors combined can serve as a decisive factor, and it is also a matter of probability. The reason I am sharing this indicator today is that there have been quite a few inquiries about it. From both a human nature and practical perspective, the probability of long-term sideways trading at a high level being a top is very low. Also, does the top in 2021 count as a long-term sideways trade at a high level?