Just for exchange of opinions, not as investment reference!
1. Current status and trends of Bitcoin (BTC)
Price shock and technical indicators: The current BTC price is fluctuating in the range of $9.5w-$9.8w, and has failed to test the $9.8w pressure level many times. The $9.5w-$9.4w below is the key support range. The technical side shows that the decline may accelerate in the short term to test the support, but the MVRV momentum indicator is still above the 365-day moving average, indicating that the long-term upward trend has not been broken.
Driven by the halving cycle: The fourth halving will take place in April 2025. Historical rules show that the main uptrend may start 6-12 months (Q3-Q4) after the halving, but it needs to be combined with the pace of the Fed’s interest rate cuts and the implementation of Trump’s policies.
Institutional fund flow: Bitcoin ETF has accumulated over $117 billion, but there has been a recent net outflow, suppressing market sentiment in the short term.
2. Divergence between Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL)
ETH short-term oversold rebound: Current price is $2730, with a daily RSI (28.79) close to the oversold region. If it holds above the $2700 support, it might rebound to the $2780 resistance level. Long-term benefits from the EIP-4844 upgrade and ETF fund inflows (totaling $2.4 billion).
-SOL ecosystem support pullback: Price is $169.2, down 42.6% from historical highs, but DeFi ecosystem TVL surged 20.7% in one day, with expectations of on-chain airdrops and institutional holdings (such as the Trump family's crypto project) providing support.
3. Macro variables dominate the market
Policy game: The Trump administration is promoting crypto-friendly policies (such as Bitcoin strategic reserves, SEC personnel appointments), but tariffs and inflation pressures may delay interest rate cuts, affecting market liquidity.
Correlation with US stocks: Short-term volatility remains highly correlated with the Nasdaq, and if US tech stocks break new highs, it may drive the crypto market upward as well.
4. Structural opportunities and risks in altcoins
Narrative-driven: Layer2, AI+DePIN, RWA and other sectors are attracting institutional attention, but caution is needed regarding the selling pressure from increasing circulation.
Capital rotation: If BTC stabilizes, funds may flow into MEME, platform tokens (such as OKT, BWB), and BSC ecosystem projects (such as Broccoli).
The core market variables in 2025 will be the halving cycle effect and the pace of implementing Trump’s policies. Q1-Q2 should focus on BTC's breakout from the consolidation range, while Q3-Q4 may witness a narrative explosion in altcoins. Short-term risks include a potential chain reaction from BTC breaking the $92k support, while long-term monitoring of ETF fund inflows and regulatory framework improvements is necessary.
