$TST analysis
This is not a financial advice DYOR. This is OpenAI analysis only.#analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation Results for TST/USDT Price Risk
We simulated 1,000 possible price paths for TST/USDT over the next 30 days using a geometric Brownian motion model.
Key Findings:
• Mean estimated price: $0.0777$ (close to the current price).
• Median estimated price: $0.0358$ (suggesting a potential downside bias).
• 10th percentile (worst-case scenario): $0.0071$ (90% probability price stays above this level).
• 90th percentile (best-case scenario): $0.1625$ (10% probability price exceeds this level).
Risk Implications:
• High downside risk: There is a significant probability of the price falling below $0.035$.
• High volatility: The price could also spike beyond $0.16$, but this is less probable.
• If investing in TST/USDT, consider hedging strategies (stop-losses, options, or diversification).
Value at Risk (VaR) Analysis for TST/USDT:
Key VaR Metrics:
• 95% Confidence Level (VaR₉₅): $0.0047$
• There is a 5% chance that the price drops below $0.0047$ in the next 30 days.
• 99% Confidence Level (VaR₉₉): $0.0023$
• There is a 1% chance that the price drops below $0.0023$ in the next 30 days.
Risk Implications:
• Severe downside risk: Even at a 95% confidence level, TST could lose nearly 94% of its value ($0.0777 → $0.0047$).
• Extreme volatility: At 99% confidence, the potential worst-case scenario suggests a near total collapse in price ($0.0023 USDT).
• If holding TST/USDT, risk management strategies (stop-loss orders, hedging, or position sizing) are critical.
