《Data Exposure Truth: Under the Rise of L2, Is ETH Overvalued or Not? The Bull Market's Increase Remains a Mystery!》
In the previous two bull markets, ETH increased by several times, but this bull market has only increased by 3 times, far less than BTC. Besides the rise of SOL, the development of L2 has impacted ETH's market value.
Compared to the peak of the last bull market, key indicators for ETH have declined. The current TVL is 64 billion, about 60% of the previous round; weekly protocol revenue is 30 million, far lower than the last round's 500 million; daily active addresses are 500,000, only one-third of the last round. However, its market value has recovered to 70% of the last peak, indicating potential overvaluation.
L2 has siphoned off 15% of ETH's TVL and 80% of active addresses, reducing protocol revenue by 90%, and also spawned tokens like ARB and OP with a market value of tens of billions, drawing away funds.
Although L2 has reduced GAS fees and stimulated trading, the ETH market value model relies on GAS fee burning to deflate ETH to offset POS staking inflation. If BASE issues tokens or UNI launches L2 UNICHAIN, ETH protocol revenue will further decrease, and market value may be further suppressed.
The concept of L2 is good, but various projects issue tokens to raise money, draining ETH. In the future bull market, ETH will rise, but the increase will be far less than the last round, and it can no longer be simply compared to trading technology in its trajectory; it is now strong on the outside but weak on the inside. $ETH
