Last night, BTC and the overall market fell, and then rebounded. Unfortunately, many mainstream and copycat currencies fell and could not rebound to the height before the fall. This is not the first time that this has happened. If you haven't figured out why, you will definitely continue to suffer losses. At the end of the article, I will remind you of the key points of the past two days. This article is only for personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #参与投票-PI该上线币安吗？

Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:

Regarding BTC: It is predicted to consolidate between 94,000 and 99,000, and there is no clear direction at present.

Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 630-680, and there is actually little risk in holding a certain position.

Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2500-2900, with each rise seeming to be accompanied by many good news, but then it quickly goes back down.

Dogecoin, Solana, Ripple, and Dogecoin mainly fluctuate with BTC, and it is normal for their volatility to be slightly higher than BTC during this period of adjustment. Many investors will switch back to BTC for safety.

Altcoin season index: This index shows that in the past 90 days, about 40 projects among the top 100 by market cap have outperformed BTC, indicating weak altcoin sentiment, and there is currently no sign of an altcoin season.

From the news perspective, Wintermute CEO's viewpoint: The adoption of cryptocurrency in the U.S. is increasing, and traditional institutions' risk aversion sentiment is easing. The asset tokenization market may reach hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars, enhancing market liquidity. The Korean Financial Supervisory Service plans to strengthen regulation of virtual asset service providers by 2025, with strict compliance reviews. Google Web3 expert's viewpoint: Google is cooperating with the BTC ecosystem to improve wallet experience and support Google account login, researching zero-knowledge proof technology to enhance credibility. BTC ETFs are becoming collateral assets for financial institutions, aiding the integration of cryptocurrency into traditional finance.

Next is the technical analysis:

1. From BTC's candlestick chart, it is still in a narrow range of consolidation, with the daily line in a downward channel and the weekly line in a box state, waiting for a new major trend.

2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 43, which is in the neutral range but on the edge of fear.

3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0054%, and ETH is 0.0032%. Recently, these two data points should be monitored closely; a sudden drop could lead to a significant decline.

4. Observing the maximum pain point of options over the next three months, in the next three days, it is between 96000-98000, which has little impact. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 10 billion nominal amount at 85000 that needs attention, but it may not necessarily drop to this level.

5. Spot ETF observation: On Tuesday, BTC outflow was 634, and ETH inflow was 1677.

6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the 24-hour indicators show: Litecoin is strong but needs to be cautious of a pullback, BNB, BTC, ETH, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Ripple are neutral, while Dogecoin and Solana are weak. Most other mainstream and altcoins are roughly half in neutral and half in weak.

7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in the lower middle range, at a moderate position.

8. The BTC accumulation index is at 1.14, suitable for regular investment and accumulation.

Many mainstream and altcoins have returned to their levels before the surge in November, so BTC remains the king, and it is essential to have a core allocation. Additionally, a reminder that the 'Pi Network' has emerged in the past couple of days; it's advised not to participate as it is essentially a scam designed to harvest retail investors. If the trading volume is high and many retail investors are trapped, be cautious of liquidity issues that could lead to further declines in other mainstream and altcoins.