1. Recent market conditions: Roller coaster mode, is the dog dealer making your heart beat again?
1. From 100,000 to 93,000, the leeks fainted in tears
Last week, BTC hit a new high of $103,600, but it crashed 5.47% in one minute, which directly brought down the entire market and caused a liquidation of $1 billion across the network! The dog dealer’s sickle is faster than Tony in the barber shop. The leeks shouted "Bulls come back quickly" while covering their positions with tears.
2. Technical aspects: stuck in the "death triangle"
Currently, BTC is bouncing back and forth in the range of $92,000 to $99,000. The MACD bar graph is like an electrocardiogram, and the KDJ indicator is lying flat and pretending to be dead. The Williams indicator says "neither oversold nor overbought", which means in human language that longs and shorts are cursing at each other, and the winner is still unknown.
3. On-chain data: Is Bitcoin in the 'special sale area'?
The rainbow chart shows BTC in the 'blue band' (special sale), AHR999 index at 0.82, suggesting dollar-cost averaging; the Coinbase premium index is negative, indicating that Americans are temporarily lying flat, but historically, this often leads to a rebound. Conclusion: Bottom-fishers are starting to get excited.
2. Is this the last drop? The soul-searching question of the inexperienced.
Answer: Possibly, but don't rush to go all in!
1. Positive factors
- Institutional support: MicroStrategy is still crazily buying (aiming to acquire 21% of BTC), ETF inflows are at record highs, even the sovereign fund that claims 'I am the richest in the world' is coming to 'pick up bargains'.
- Macroeconomic factors are favorable: 2025 interest rate cut expectations + Trump-friendly crypto policies, BTC states 'my fate is determined by heaven, not by me'.
2. Negative warning
- Leverage liquidation zone: Above $99,800 lies $938 million in short liquidation orders, and below $96,900 there are $364 million in long liquidation orders. The market makers: One side must be chosen for liquidation.
- Retail investors fleeing: Short-term holders (STH) are close to breakeven, and once they drop below $91,500, it could trigger panic selling, aiming straight for $86,000.
Summary: It feels like 'Schrodinger's bottom'—it is both an opportunity to buy the dip and could also be kicked again by market makers. Survival rule for the inexperienced: **Don't go all in, don't use leverage, don't eat noodles in the dark!**
3. This week's forecast: Volatility range and operation guide
Price range: $92,500 - $98,500 (extreme pull version)
- Support levels: $95,000 (technical level) + $93,000 (institutional buying mentality line).
- Resistance levels: $98,000 (short-seller liquidation zone) + $99,700 (bull-bear dividing line).
Operation guide (must-read for the inexperienced)
1. 'When others are fearful, I am greedy' faction: Build positions in batches in the $93,000 - $95,000 range, set stop-loss at $91,000 (give up if it breaks).
2. 'The bull will return quickly' faith faction: Break through $99,700 and blindly go long, target $106,000 (cup and handle pattern starting).
3. 'Shaking in fear' wait-and-see faction: Get your small stool ready to watch, wait for the daily line to stabilize above $97,000 before getting on board, don't be fooled by false breakouts from market makers.
4. Golden phrases for the inexperienced to avoid liquidation
- 'Hoarding for ten years, a villa by the sea; watching the market every day, waiting in line on the rooftop.'
- 'Institutions eat meat while you drink soup, don't drink Meng Po soup before liquidation.'
- 'When the rainbow chart turns blue, don't panic; when it's red, don't be reckless; when it's purple... run!'
Final reminder: The market is always more exciting than the script. Don't believe in 'absolute bottoms', trust your own position management!
(This article does not constitute investment advice, please do not disturb if you are liquidated, except market makers) 🐶