#BNBChainMeme热潮
In 2025, the macroeconomic policies of the United States will be the key factor in determining the second half of the crypto bull market.
Unlike the wild growth in the past, the bull market in this cycle is characterized by compliance, with institutional funds becoming the dominant force, and institutions are more sensitive to macroeconomic factors. Judging from the release of macro data this week, although there are no particularly critical data, there are two data worth paying attention to.
The first is the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting released in the early hours of Thursday. Although the market no longer expects a rate cut in March, through this minute, we can understand the attitude of Federal Reserve officials on the issue of tariffs. Tariff policies are closely related to the macroeconomic situation and may have an indirect impact on the crypto market.
The second is the inflation forecast data from the University of Michigan released on Friday night. The last time the data was 4.3%, it directly led to a sharp drop in the market. This data has attracted much attention. If it is higher than 4.3%, it may hit market confidence again. Although in my opinion, the reliability of this data is questionable, if the data is lower, it will undoubtedly help boost market sentiment and inject a shot in the arm for the crypto market.
Looking back at the previous major market trends in this cycle, they were mainly driven by two major events: ETF benefits and Trump's coming to power. The ETF story came to an end with the launch of the Ethereum ETF, and Trump's narrative also faded with his enthusiasm for the throne. At present, there are still unlanded Bitcoin reserves in the market, but concerns about uncertainties such as tariff policies have aggravated the wait-and-see sentiment.
Looking forward, we can only look forward to interest rate cuts. Despite the rapid changes in the currency circle, the Bitcoin cycle and the US dollar cycle have not changed. There is currently no reason to sell before the upcoming interest rate cut. Short-term uncertainties will always land, and at present, whether it is macro data such as inflation and unemployment rate, or K-line trends, they are in a position that can go up or down. Therefore, as uncertainty dissipates, the bull market in the second half will continue.
