On February 18, 2025, an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Ethereum Prague upgrade

Recently, a friend asked me about my views on the Ethereum Prague upgrade in April, which made me ponder deeply.

In my opinion, any positive news must align with the overall market trend to exert its proper effect. It can either help break the balance during a stalemate or enhance the market in a bullish phase. However, as of now, the first quarter clearly belongs to the territory of a bearish market.

The strong return of Ripple’s annual line and the fluctuations in Bitcoin, like two mountains, are suppressing the upward momentum of the entire cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it is foreseeable that Ethereum's path to increase in the first quarter will still be fraught with difficulties.

However, as a significant event for Ethereum, the effects of the Prague upgrade will gradually emerge in the second quarter. By then, after a significant decline in the first quarter, the market may enter a phase of horizontal fluctuations, with both bulls and bears evenly matched, forming a balanced situation. At this time, the emergence of a positive news will undoubtedly be the key to breaking the balance.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum's price is approaching a weekly double bottom and is at a relatively low level. Therefore, although the news of the Prague upgrade serves as an opportunity for a rise, the price returning to the mean and rising above the annual line is the trend of the market.

For friends intending to buy Ethereum, I suggest staying calm and not rushing. In the first quarter, the price may experience multiple fluctuations, being suppressed by bearish forces. Therefore, it may be wise to buy in batches during each pullback to steadily accumulate positions.

The market is like the tide, with hotspots constantly changing. From inscriptions to MEME hype, and then to old mainstream trends, every trend recognized by the public signifies the approach of a reversal. When a certain asset becomes the focus of everyone's pursuit, it often means that its price has deviated from its value, posing a risk of overvaluation.

Real investment opportunities often arise during times of market fear, and the chance to buy at a discount usually accompanies market panic. Even with the highest quality assets, purchasing during a frenzy can make it difficult to achieve high returns and may even lead to significant losses.

Therefore, I remind all investors to stay away from those assets whose prices are severely deviated from the annual line. On the path of investment, maintaining rationality is essential for a stable and long-term journey.