I vaguely remember that when Bitcoin was at $50,000, a WeChat friend asked, 'Is the bull market coming to an end?' I told him, 'The climax of the bull market has just begun.' However, the market is always changing, and a temporary correction is enough to stir people's hearts, making his confidence waver like a candle in the wind.

He turned to other bloggers for answers and was told that Bitcoin was about to crash. At that moment, the balance of trust quietly tilted. He resolutely liquidated his holdings, waiting to pick up cheap chips after the crash; however, Bitcoin not only did not crash but soared like a phoenix, breaking through the historical high of $100,000. Meanwhile, he was drifting further away down the path of shorting, until he faced liquidation and his chips turned to nothing, leaving only endless regret.

Recently, a WeChat friend asked me, 'Has Bitcoin peaked?'

I replied, 'It hasn't peaked yet.'

He asked, 'What month will it peak?'

I replied, 'When it peaks, there will be subtle signs to inform us.'

In this era of information overload, whenever the market fluctuates, many investors will search for answers on various social media; whenever there is a change in trend, they hope the internet can provide clear guidance. However, this shortsighted behavior cannot build a solid investment system and may instead trap individuals in deeper dilemmas.

The main players in the market are well aware of this, so they are adept at using the media and so-called 'bloggers' to spread false information, carefully weaving a seemingly reasonable 'information web' that ensnares retail investors, making it hard for them to extricate themselves. Statements such as 'regulatory policies are about to tighten', 'institutional funds are withdrawing on a large scale', and 'the global economic situation affects the cryptocurrency market' are endlessly appearing, leaving investors overwhelmed.

Many investors firmly believe in these messages, largely because the market has been in a prolonged state of volatility, combined with occasional significant corrections, which has led them to develop a strong dependence on these 'insider messages.'

Many people tend to focus only on the short-term fluctuations before them, neglecting the long-term trends hidden behind. Short-term fluctuations are like the waves on the sea, changing rapidly, while long-term trends are the key to determining the direction of the market. If one is misled by short-term fluctuations without an accurate judgment of long-term trends, they can only be swayed by market news, which is a major taboo in investing and a weakness of human nature.

The ups and downs of Bitcoin in the past few years are the best proof of this. It seems to have experienced several thrilling crashes, but in reality, its overall trend continues to rise. If one only focuses on the current decline while ignoring the overall trend, they will miss out on real investment opportunities.

Just as the changing seasons in nature follow their inherent laws, the rise and fall of the market also adhere to cyclical principles. A brief correction cannot change the long-term operational trend of the market.

Increasing amounts of capital are continuously flowing into the cryptocurrency market, indicating that traditional financial funds are steadily entering this field. However, many people only focus on the current flow of funds, and once they see money flowing out, they believe the market will fall into a slump.

As ordinary investors, when listening to various predictions and news, we need to first consider whether the sources of these messages are reliable, whether the people issuing these messages have sufficient market analysis ability and understanding of blockchain technology. Listening to messages is also a skill, but the premise of this skill is that one has already developed enough judgment and discernment.

Only by continuously improving our abilities and learning to think and judge independently can we accurately distinguish the truth of information and reduce the probability of being misled. On the path of investment, we must not only learn to follow the rhythm of the market but also learn how to avoid hidden traps and thorns. Only in this way can we steadily move forward in the winds and rains of the market and ultimately welcome our own bull market.