1. The Argentine president is involved in a cryptocurrency fraud scandal, causing market turmoil.
After Argentine President Milei promoted the token '$LIBRA' on social media, its price plummeted by 99%, accused of 'rug pull' operations and violating the Public Morality Law. The token fell from a peak of $4,978 to $0.99, leading to significant investor losses. The incident has attracted international attention, with the opposition planning to initiate impeachment, and the anti-corruption office has intervened in the investigation.
**Impact**:
- Market trust in altcoins is declining, with QCP Capital pointing out that BTC's market capitalization share is approaching 60%, while altcoins remain weak.
- Rising regulatory risks may prompt countries to strengthen compliance reviews of cryptocurrency promotions.
2. Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions jointly issue a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, promoting the compliance process.
Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Animoca Brands, and Hong Kong Telecom have established a joint venture to apply for a Hong Kong Monetary Authority license to issue a Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin. This move aims to respond to Hong Kong's new regulatory framework and enhance transparency in the stablecoin market.
**Impact**:
- The acceleration of stablecoin compliance may attract more traditional financial institutions to enter the market, enhancing market liquidity.
- Hong Kong may further consolidate its position as a crypto financial center in the Asia-Pacific region.
3. HashKey Capital launches the first compliant multi-token index fund.
HashKey Capital has launched the 'HashKey20' index fund approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, reducing the weight of BTC and ETH to below 40%, including mainstream tokens like SOL and DOGE, aiming to diversify risks and align with the global crypto market capitalization index. The fund is included in the Hong Kong investment immigration program to attract compliant capital inflows.
**Impact**:
- Providing low-threshold, diversified crypto asset allocation tools for institutional investors may attract traditional capital.
- The token screening mechanism may affect the market's definition of 'quality altcoins', benefiting selected projects.
4. Federal Reserve policy and market wait-and-see sentiment dominate crypto volatility.
The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes are about to be released, with the market expecting a hawkish stance. Previously, Powell emphasized that there is 'no rush to cut rates,' combined with U.S. CPI and PPI data exceeding expectations, leading to a continued decline in crypto market volatility, with funds leaning towards short-term trading.
**Impact**:
- Macroeconomic uncertainty suppresses breakthrough trends in risk assets, and BTC may maintain range-bound fluctuations in the short term.
- If the Federal Reserve signals tightening, it may exacerbate the risk of a decline in correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks.
5. Global regulatory dynamics: Australia cracks down on exchange money laundering
Australian regulators have issued warning letters to 50 cryptocurrency exchanges, requiring timely rectification of anti-money laundering and registration compliance issues, or face penalties.
**Impact**:
- In the short term, this may trigger tightening liquidity at exchanges, with some smaller platforms facing exit pressure.
- In the long term, the compliance process will purify the market environment and enhance investor confidence.
Summary
The events in the cryptocurrency circle on February 17 highlight three major trends:
1. Regulatory risks and compliance progress run parallel: The Argentine incident warns project parties and public figures of their promotional responsibilities, while regulatory actions in Hong Kong and Australia push for market standardization.
2. Funds concentrating on BTC and compliant products: Under market risk aversion, BTC's dominant position strengthens, and institutional-level products (such as index funds) may become new capital entry points.
3. Macroeconomic policies dominate short-term volatility: Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks (such as Trump's tariff policies) remain the largest external variables for the crypto market.
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In the future, attention should focus on the legal progress of the LIBRA incident, the implementation of stablecoins in Hong Kong, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting.
