In the past two months, every time the market retraced, it was quite severe, but the rise has been dragging on. Many people in the market have come to the conclusion: 'Without interest rate cuts and monetary easing, funds won't come in, trading volume won't rise, and prices won't go up.'
But I believe that whether or not there is monetary easing has little direct relationship with whether there is a bull market in the cryptocurrency space.
People always like to use the last bull market as a reference, thinking that it was the result of monetary easing that brought about the bull market.
In fact, this is just a one-sided wish of retail investors.
One should know that the previous bull market and the one before that did not experience monetary easing; so why was there a bull market? Therefore, the last bull market just happened to coincide with the Federal Reserve's easing, which only added some icing on the cake.
If someone is unconvinced, ask them a question: 'How much monetary easing was there in 2020? Did that funding flow into the cryptocurrency space?'
Saying 'the last bull market was due to monetary easing' is really too one-sided. Such reasoning is merely self-imposed. It's like trying to seek a sword from a boat; in the end, only you will be harmed.
Whether there is monetary easing or not is actually not important; what matters is the background trend of the market: we are now in a rate-cutting cycle. This is clear, and once the rate-cutting cycle begins, it won't change easily.
It's like farming; you plant in spring and you can't change your strategy halfway because the goal is to harvest in autumn. The Federal Reserve's statements can be unreliable at times, but the decisions of such a large country are discussed by countless think tanks, not made arbitrarily.
So, if you're just listening to news and casually following the Federal Reserve's rhetoric, thinking that the end of rate cuts means the start of rate hikes, and believing that the funding situation is bad, is it really like that?
Why did Bitcoin start to fluctuate when it reached 100,000? Isn't it because the main force has seen through the psychology of retail investors and set traps according to their thoughts?
Retail investors are thinking: 'Bitcoin has risen to 100,000, how much more can it rise? The bull market is about to end, and altcoins aren't moving either.'
The main force will cater to the wishes of retail investors, creating the illusion that the 'bull market is over' to get more chips handed over. Why is there no trading volume?
Because most chips are in the hands of the main force, there are very few outside, so trading volume is naturally low.
Look at SOL, XRP, ORDI; those with high trading volumes are because retail investors are buying. Who's chips are retail investors buying?
Isn't it just the chips in the hands of the main force? So the main force naturally starts to offload.
Thus, retail investors always want high trading volumes, good market conditions, and to buy at the lowest point. Do they think that's possible?
Retail investors always enter the market only after a significant price increase; at that time, trading volume surges, the market starts to heat up, and the result is that the main force begins to unload.
Low trading volume isn't necessarily a bad thing, and high trading volume doesn't always mean good. Only by observing the market and identifying the intentions of the main force can you know what to do next, rather than being reactive.
Whether the bull market has ended, if 100,000 is the peak for Bitcoin, and whether altcoins still have opportunities are not matters of feeling.
If it felt useful, there wouldn't be so many people losing money.
The main force has set one trap after another based on the feelings of retail investors.
Everything in the world has its laws. Those who understand how to capture these laws can achieve great things. Only those who understand the trends of bulls and bears can truly gain from the market.
