1. The Truth of the Market: Opportunities always exist, but they only belong to 'cold-blooded animals.'
The cryptocurrency market is a jungle, not a casino. There are no eternal bull markets or absolute bear markets, only periodic fluctuations and the repeated replay of human greed. Do you think missing one surge means no more opportunities? Bitcoin took ten years to rise from $1 to $60,000 and only one year to crash from $60,000 to $16,000, yet it has now returned to over $50,000. Every valley is a prelude to a new narrative, and every bubble is a reckoning of understanding.
Key Logic: The underlying value of cryptocurrency has long surpassed the currency itself—it is a decentralized ideological revolution, a patch for the global financial system, and the core infrastructure of the digital economy era. As long as humanity's pursuit of freedom, efficiency, and wealth does not extinguish, the market will always have structural opportunities.
2. The Dilemma of Retail Investors: Dying from anxiety, not the market.
Typical symptoms of retail investors: chasing trends, believing in KOLs, buying at high prices out of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and then cutting losses in FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). They crash around like headless flies among 'meme coins' and 'a hundredfold myths,' yet turn a blind eye to technologies that can truly change the world (such as zero-knowledge proofs, modular blockchains, decentralized AI).
Bloody lessons: The LUNA crash in 2023, the FTX explosion in 2024, and the zeroing out of a certain 'metaverse leader' in 2025—these projects share a common feature: grand narratives but hollow code, community fervor but team anonymity. The tragedy of retail investors is essentially an obsession with 'short-term wealth,' not the cruelty of the market.
3. Crocodile Strategy: Deep Learning, Long-Term Observation, Fatal Strike.
Soros's theory of reflexivity is taken to extremes in the cryptocurrency market: market sentiment distorts fundamentals, and the distorted fundamentals then feed back into sentiment. True hunters only strike at two moments—
1. When the market is extremely pessimistic: When everyone panics and sells off due to regulatory crackdowns (like a country banning exchanges) or black swan events (like the bankruptcy of a giant), crocodiles calmly bottom-fish the quality assets that have been mistakenly killed (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum going through compliance processes).
2. Before the critical point of technology explosion: For example, positioning in the L2 track before Ethereum's Cancun upgrade, or betting on compute tokens (like $RNDR, $TAO) before the explosion of AI + blockchain protocols.
Core Actions:
- Deep Learning: Study codebase activity, team backgrounds (like figures similar to Vitalik or anonymous developers), and ecological partners (like $THETA collaborating with Samsung).
- Long-term observation: Track on-chain data (whale wallet movements, stablecoin inflows), regulatory dynamics (like the pace of institutional entry after ETF approvals), technical milestones (like the progress of zk-Rollups).
- Wait like a crocodile: Lurking 80% of the time, striking 20% of the time. For example, building positions in public chain projects with a total market cap below $50 million at the end of a bear market, or gradually cashing out overvalued MEME coins during the mid-stages of a bull market.
---
4. Traps and Disguises: Beware of the deadly temptation of 'false opportunities.'
The market is always filled with three types of traps:
1. False Narratives: Funding schemes disguised as 'Web 3.0 revolutions' (such as certain blockchain game projects), or DeFi protocols that use high APY to mask Ponzi structures.
2. Liquidity Illusion: 'Meme coins' launched on small exchanges seem to have incredible price increases but actually lack depth; once sold, they return to zero.
3. Regulatory Scythe: Certain countries may freeze assets in the name of 'anti-money laundering,' or suddenly legislate against cryptocurrency as the U.S. did with gold confiscation in 1933.
5. Future Battlefields: Which fields hide real alpha?
1. Infrastructure Layer: Modular Blockchains (like Celestia), Decentralized Storage (like Filecoin), Cross-Chain Protocols (like LayerZero).
2. Application Inflection Points: RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization), DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), AI Agent Economy.
3. Regulatory Arbitrage Windows: Compliant stablecoin issuers (like Circle), regulated crypto banks (like the Silvergate recovery concept).
Conclusion: Become a crocodile, not fish meat.
There are no saviors in the cryptocurrency market, only survivors. Remember:
- Patience is more important than talent; 90% of profits come from 10% of trades.
- Risk control is a belief; always gamble with funds you can afford to lose, and isolate greed with hardware wallets.
- Independent thinking is a weapon; when the community is celebrating, you should smell danger; when the media is pessimistic, you should see opportunity.
The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the cold-blooded hunter who treats time as an ally. If you are still anxious about today’s ups and downs, then sorry—you don't even qualify to be a retail investor.
