$OM PRE-ANALYSIS CHECK:
1. Compared to previous forecasts:
- Main scenario (60%): Adjusted to $7.30-7.40 ❌ Not yet occurred
- Price only decreased slightly by 0.75% to $7.531
- RSI remains in the overbought zone (77.08)
- Volume increased significantly (2.06x vs 1.69x previously)
2. Important changes:
- Market Depth improved significantly: 0.74 (↑ from 0.11)
- Funding rate deeper negative: -0.00046 (↓ from -0.00016)
- OI slightly decreased: 51.6M (↓ from 53.1M)
ANALYSIS UPDATE:
1. Technical indicators:
- RSI: 77.08 (Still strongly overbought)
- MACD: 0.637 (Maintaining an upward trend)
- BB Width: 0.502 (High volatility)
2. Market pressure:
- Liquidity improved significantly
- Volume remains high (2.06x average)
- Weak imbalance (0.07)
- Deep negative funding rate → Shorts are dominant
4-12H FORECAST:
1. Main scenario (50%):
- Range bound $7.40-7.70
- RSI gradually decreasing, stable volume
- Short-term accumulation
2. Bullish scenario (30%):
- Break $7.70, target $8.00
- When: Short squeeze due to negative funding
- Volume maintains > 1.5x avg
3. Bearish scenario (20%):
- Test $7.20-7.30
- Clear RSI divergence
- Volume spike + price drop
TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Strategy:
- Range trading within $7.40-7.70
- Maximum leverage 2x
- Divide position (4-5 parts)
2. Entry Points:
Long:
- Zone: $7.40-7.45
- Stop loss: $7.30
- TP: $7.65-7.70
Short:
- Zone: $7.65-7.70
- Stop loss: $7.80
- TP: $7.45-7.50
3. Risk management:
- Position size: 3-5% portfolio/entry
- Strict stop loss
- Take profit in parts
- Do not hold overnight
SPECIAL NOTES:
1. The market is saturated but there are no clear signs of reversal
2. Deep negative funding rate → High risk of short squeeze
3. Improved liquidity helps reduce the risk of strong volatility
