Event contract games have attracted the attention of many players. However, is this game really worth continuous participation? Can it provide you with the possibility of stable earnings?
I. The Insurmountable Gap in Winning Rates
Let's first look at the simple random event of flipping a coin to guess heads or tails. From the basic principles of probability, under ideal conditions, the probability of getting heads or tails with each coin flip is 50%. As the number of coin flips increases and approaches infinity, the actual frequency of heads and tails will get infinitely close to 50%, which is an unbreakable stable rule in probability.
However, for event contracts to break even, the requirements for winning rates are more stringent. Taking the 10-minute game as an example, if a player loses, they will lose 100% of their principal; if they win, they can only receive 80% of the bonus. Through calculations, we find that players need to achieve a winning rate of about 55.56% to ensure no losses. Compared to the nearly 50% winning rate of flipping a coin, this difference seems small, but in actual operation, stabilizing above this winning rate in the uncertain environment of event contract games to maintain continuous profits is almost an impossible task.
PS: The author personally tested and couldn't even achieve a 50% winning rate (facepalm)
II. The Trap of Gambling Mentality
From the perspective of human psychological feelings, event contract games easily trigger a gambling mentality. When people participate in this type of game, they are often deceived by the potential high returns while ignoring the enormous risks hidden behind. In gambling psychology, there is a phenomenon known as the 'gambler's fallacy', where players tend to believe that after experiencing a series of bad luck, good luck is bound to follow.
For example, in event contract games, if a player guesses the result wrong several times in a row, they will subconsciously feel that the probability of guessing correctly next time will significantly increase, leading them to continuously increase their betting amount in an attempt to recover previous losses. This mentality can trap players in a vicious cycle, wanting to recoup losses even more, increasing their betting amounts, ultimately resulting in heavy financial losses. Moreover, even if players occasionally make profits in the game, such earnings obtained by luck will further reinforce the gambling mentality, making them more addicted to the game and difficult to extricate themselves.
Although flipping a coin is simple, its probability is stable and fair, and does not create unrealistic illusions for participants. In contrast, event contract games are full of uncertainty and risks, making participation seem more like a gamble rather than a rational investment choice for most people.