【Core Conclusion】
The only chance for ordinary people to turn things around is in the primary market, but this requires deep cognition and professional judgment. The fundamental reason why 90% of people become leeks is that they use speculative thinking to make long-term tracks and use emotions to fight against capital rules.
【Key Logic】
1. The truth about the top harvesting chain
- Exchanges/market makers/project owners are always making money (pumping mechanism + information gap)
- The secondary market is essentially a capital playground (K-line is a harvesting tool)
2. The paradox of the primary market
- High odds come with extremely high risks (90% of projects return to zero)
- A truly high-quality project needs to penetrate 4 layers:
Technical layer: open source code/cross-chain capabilities/on-chain data
Economic layer: token model/market value space/release mechanism
Ecological layer: developer community/real application scenarios
Team level: technical background/past experience/compliance layout
3. Cognitive breakthrough methodology
- Establish a coordinate system for project evaluation (e.g. TVL/daily active contracts for public chains, APY sustainability for DeFi)
- Penetrate the white paper's rhetoric trap (beware of excessive marketing vs. technical documentation completeness)
- On-chain data cross-validation (coin holding address distribution/Gas consumption trend)
【Anti-common sense truth】
- Top projects often have anti-human design in the early stages (e.g. 99% of people thought UNI was useless during the airdrop)
- The core difference between Ponzi schemes and true innovation: whether real value is created on the chain
- The real alpha information is not in the community, but in GitHub submission records and governance proposals
【Action Guide】
1. Establish a technical knowledge baseline (at least understand the basic logic of smart contracts)
2. Focus on vertical tracks (choose one of the three: public chain/L2/DeFi)
3. Join the developer community to get advance information
4. Use very small funds to test the judgment system (3 projects/year in-depth tracking)
The real breakthrough point: Evolve yourself from a "coin speculator" to an "ecosystem participant", and shift from earning market β to capturing protocol α. This requires at least 200 hours of professional learning, but the rewards of crossing the bull and bear markets may exceed the total salary of ten years.
