The US seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for the end of January will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time tonight! Will the results of this announcement be positive or negative? How will the market trend go in the future?
Market expectations and data forecasts -Overall CPI annual rate: The market generally expects 2.9%, the same as in December; the core CPI annual rate is expected to be 3.1%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.2%.
CPI data is lower than expected (good for the currency circle) CPI data is in line with or higher than expected (neutral or negative)
If the data is in line with expectations (core CPI is 3.1% year-on-year), the market reaction may be flat, because Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized that more data is needed to confirm the inflation trend, and the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low.
Negative risk: If the core CPI is higher than expected (such as more than 3.2%), it may strengthen the Fed's determination to maintain high interest rates, leading to a stronger US dollar and pressure on risky assets, and Bitcoin may pull back to the lower edge of the range.
Other influencing factors - Trump tariff policy: The import tariff measures that may be announced tonight (such as steel and aluminum tariffs increased to 25%) may exacerbate inflation expectations, prompt the Federal Reserve to be more cautious, and indirectly suppress the upside of Bitcoin.
Comprehensive analysis is as follows: 1️⃣ Short-term favorable conditions: core CPI is significantly lower than expected (such as below 3.0%) + weaker US dollar + increased expectations of Fed rate cuts → Bitcoin may hit the $105,000-$110,000 range.
2️⃣ Neutral/unfavorable conditions: data meets or exceeds expectations + the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance → Bitcoin may fall back to the $95,000-$100,000 range.
3️⃣ Long-term trend: Inflation stickiness (core service prices) and policy uncertainty (Trump tariffs) are still the main risks, limiting the space for a substantial rise in the currency circle.
