Comment by / Author: Zhiqiang / February 11, 2025

Abstract

In the traditional economic system, the valuation of fixed assets, liquid assets, and intangible assets has fixed methods. However, how to assess the intangible assets of celebrities (influencers, sports stars, political figures), political parties, and nations? This question has become increasingly important in the internet age. This article explores how to measure the market value of personal brands, political capital, and national credit using the replacement cost method, discounted cash flow method, and market comparison method.

Trump Coin ($TRUMP) is a new model for monetizing intangible assets. It completely relies on Trump's personal influence, but its market value may surpass that of traditional meme coins (like DOGE, SHIB). The global, decentralized nature, and user base of the crypto market give it a higher valuation than the stock market, becoming a tool for celebrities and political parties to bypass traditional financial systems and directly monetize influence.

Meanwhile, the valuation of political parties can be based on election fundraising ability, voter loyalty, and policy influence; the valuation of nations should not be limited to GDP and trade but should include intangible assets, such as the global settlement status of the U.S. dollar, the tech industry, and cultural soft power. Even with debt reaching $35 trillion, the U.S. still maintains financial stability, thanks to the support of intangible assets for its credit system.

Entering the Web3 era, human capital is becoming a core asset alongside traditional capital. Cryptocurrencies provide a decentralized, humanistic economic model that is challenging the traditional capitalist financial system. In the future, personal brands, political party power, and even national influence may be directly valued through decentralized markets and become an important part of the economic system.

1. Assessment of Intangible Assets: From Fixed Assets to 'Humanistic'

Credit depends on the underlying value, which has actual value, such as real estate, gold, and bitcoin that can serve as collateral. But how should intangible assets be valued?

Traditional asset assessments typically use three main methods:

· Replacement Cost Method: Calculate the cost of recreating the asset. · Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method: Calculate the present value of future earnings.

· Current Market Price Method: Valuation through market transactions comparing similar assets. Fixed assets (such as real estate, factory equipment) follow these methods, but how to assess the intangible assets of celebrities (influencers, sports stars, political figures, etc.)? For personal brand assets like Trump, Musk, or Cristiano Ronaldo, their intangible assets are mainly reflected in: 1. Social media influence: number of fans, interaction rates, monetization ability (endorsements, advertisements, membership subscriptions). 2. Market influence: the effect of their statements on the stock market, crypto market, or economic decisions. 3. Future income expectations: quantifiable income streams from books, speeches, brand licensing, investment returns, etc. 4. Political capital: whether it can influence capital flows in elections or policy levels. For instance, Trump's followers on X (formerly Twitter) grew from 85 million to 100 million, making his personal brand a force that influences the global market. Even if he no longer serves as president, a single statement can still drive fluctuations in cryptocurrency, stock, or even gold prices. How is this 'influence' valued? Estimate its potential future commercialization ability using the income method; past brand valuations clearly cannot cover Trump's valuation. Alternatively, use the market comparison method to compare valuations with similar influential enterprises or individuals, but how to find such samples? The most followed globally is Musk; does that mean Musk's intangible assets exceed those of President Trump? The future question is: as personal intangible assets become more valuable, will there be more efficient ways to monetize them?

2. Trump Coin: A Possible Innovative Path for Monetizing Intangible Assets

Trump Coin ($TRUMP) is essentially the financialization of intangible assets. It does not have actual asset support but completely relies on Trump's personal influence. However, its market value is higher than many companies with actual business operations. Compared to PEPE (Frog Coin), SHIB (Shiba Inu Coin), DOGE (Dog Coin), which are purely meme coins, Trump Coin has:

· Stronger brand value: Trump is a former president of the United States, possessing a strong fan base and political influence.

· Higher market attention: His supporters are not only crypto players but also political donors, voters, and entrepreneurs.

· Potential political impact: The market value of Trump Coin may be directly related to Trump's political fate and could even become a new political fundraising tool.

· Here are legal issues: Of course, practice comes first, and law comes later.

（1）Comparative analysis of meme coin market value (in millions USD) Influence Source Application Scenario DOGE 370 Musk Support Occasionally Used for Payment SHIB 89 Community Consensus Occasionally Used for Payment PEPE 40 Pure Meme Speculation No Application TRUMP 35 Trump's Political Influence Political Donations, Financialization (Data as of February 7, 2025, from Coinmarketcap) (2) Cryptocurrency vs. Stocks: Why is the valuation higher? The valuation of cryptocurrencies is generally higher than that of stocks because:

· Global Market vs. Regional Market: The stock market is usually regulated by the state, while cryptocurrencies operate in a global free trading market.

· A broader user base: Bitcoin has over 1 million daily active users, Dogecoin over 500,000.

In contrast, Apple has only 16,000 registered shareholders.

· Trading hours: The crypto market trades 24/7, longer than the average trading hours of the stock market.

· Different valuation models:

· Stocks are based on corporate profitability (discounted cash flows). Because the stock market targets mature enterprises.

· Cryptocurrencies are based on consensus, market demand, brand influence, and other factors. They also have storytelling capabilities of early projects. Early projects are generally overvalued, which is similar to internet projects. The entire crypto industry is still early. The emergence of Trump Coin proves that celebrities can fully monetize their intangible assets through cryptocurrencies, bypassing the traditional capital market rules.

3. Valuation of Political Parties and Nations:

The new issues of the internet era: Can political parties and nations be valued, in addition to individual intangible assets? This question has become particularly important in the Web3 era, as influence and political capital represent credit and have become important components of the economic system. When the U.S. changes parties, its national valuation also changes. This is reflected in the impacts on stocks and exchange rates, for example, from Trump's election victory to February 2005, the U.S. dollar index rose from 103 to 107. How does the market value the U.S. and political parties? Old polls are wrong, and the old methods of economic judgment are also incorrect.

（1）Valuation of Political Parties: In the U.S., political parties are closely linked to the capital market, and their valuation can be based on: · Voter loyalty (number of votes, long-term support rates). · Fundraising ability (fundraising during election cycles). · Policy influence (impact on the economy, stock market, and technology sector). Market data reference: · In the 2020 election, the Democratic Party raised $1.5 billion, while the Republican Party raised $1.4 billion. · Prediction markets like Polymarket can already provide real monetary forecasts for elections, with accuracy surpassing polls. · If we calculate the party's intangible assets by discounting election funds × future influence, they could reach the level of hundreds of billions. This is because elections in the U.S. already operate at a scale of tens of billions of dollars.

（2）Valuation of Nations: The traditional valuation of nations relies on indicators such as GDP, trade volume, and financial systems. However, in today's world, intangible assets have become a crucial factor in determining national credit. The U.S. currently has government debt exceeding $35 trillion; why hasn't it collapsed? Because: · The U.S. dollar serves as the global settlement currency, possessing world-class intangible assets. · American tech companies (Apple, Google, Microsoft) contribute massive economic influence. · Soft power (Hollywood, NBA, university systems) supports the U.S.'s global economic position. Analyzing with Fisher's theorem (the ratio of finance to industry should be 1:1), the U.S.'s financial scale far exceeds its industrial scale, yet it hasn't collapsed, indicating that U.S. intangible assets are playing a role. If we use global trade settlement volume as a basis for valuation, the U.S. valuation might be even higher, while China's valuation could be undervalued due to the closed nature of its financial markets. In cryptocurrencies, there is a saying that the circulating value of tokens is 3 to 5 times the non-circulating value, referred to as liquidity premium.

（3）Valuation of Global Human Capital: In the Web3 era, human capital has become a new core asset: · The internet economy has broken the monopoly of capital over resources, allowing personal influence to be directly monetized (such as YouTube creators, NFT artists). · Intangible assets do not deplete like cash but grow over time and with influence. From this perspective, national competition is no longer just about land and capital, but about how to maximize the utilization of its population and talent resources.

4. Conclusion:

Cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence are reshaping the future of the world. With the help of AI, super individuals will emerge in large numbers, similar to the big influencers on YouTube and TikTok, where one person's profit can even exceed that of a publicly listed company. The issue is their lifespan is very short; if they issue tokens at their peak and have a monetization model, then capital will no longer be able to constrain their actions. New business models will certainly emerge and will be more beneficial to people. One type of person will become a scarce resource. People are scarce resources and can be mobile. Generally, countries attract investment as a driver of economic growth. How to attract talent? If the U.S. does not collect personal income tax, the mobile scarce resource—people—will flow to the U.S. This poses the greatest challenge to the regional-based national system after the internet era. The U.S. has already been reducing government costs; if it succeeds, all existing economic and political systems will be completely rewritten. The people will be the biggest beneficiaries in this national competition. Which country has the most scarce resources—people—will have a competitive advantage. Times have changed; the traditional economic system centers around capital, but the internet and Web3 are shaping a 'humanistic' economy: · Celebrities' personal brands can be monetized (like Trump Coin). · Political capital of parties can be valued (like Polymarket). · The national intangible assets can affect financial stability (like the U.S. debt issue). In the future, the monetization of intangible assets will further disrupt the traditional financial system. In the past, capitalists dominated the economy, but in the future, individual influence, community consensus, and decentralized economies may become the new foundation of global wealth. Cryptocurrencies are not a socialist revolution challenging capitalism, but a 'humanistic' revolution challenging capitalism. In the crypto era, economists who do not understand cryptocurrencies will not be able to comprehend the changes in the future world.

Original Link

#$Trump #meme @DW20 @songht @zhuweisha2