Hello, everyone, I am Lightning Rod. In this issue, I want to discuss the topic of why gamerfi's imitation disks have never been successful.

With the rise of stepn's x to earn gamefi, many projects this year have adopted his model.

Including melody, bicycle, readon. These projects basically cannot reach the level of stepn.

Whether it is the market discussion heat or the trading depth and token increase.

In this issue, we will analyze the underlying logic of this event.

First, let’s talk about the results of my analysis.

I think

1. No innovation (or fine-tuning)

2. High user overlap

3. Limited market share

4. Ponzi (Never Tap)

So how do we understand these four points? First of all, there is no innovation.

We all know that the crypto market is always about new things and never old things, and it is always chasing hot spots.

We can know this from DeFi to GameFi

Gamefi itself is an innovation of the DeFi model, gamified finance.

Without innovation (or minor tweaks), it is difficult to attract market attention or public recognition.

Especially in a bear market, there is no new capital and new users entering the market.

For the old investors, they have experienced many projects and have read the white papers of those projects in depth.

If you remain the same, it will be hard to attract their attention.

There is always something new in the market. New concepts or new projects will appear every once in a while.

I think it is difficult for many people to focus their energy and funds on copycat platforms.

Second, users have a high degree of overlap.

The current market environment is in a bear market stage, and there is no new blood entering the market.

A poor market environment is also very unfavorable for the learning and growth of newcomers

Many newcomers may quit after a few failures.

So in fact, the people who play gamefi are still the old leeks who have persisted before.

Many users who have played melody, bicycle, and these imitation games have played stepn

They are all very clear about the life cycle of such a model

Many speculators only speculate in the short term and do not participate in the game.

Even if some people buy NFT to make money, their strategy is just to mine, withdraw and sell.

There will be no reinvestment. This situation is actually very unfavorable to the economic model of the game.

In the end, their lifespan will only get shorter and shorter, and users will become more and more prejudiced against copycat platforms.

Third, the market share is limited

The market value of many gamefi projects is often hundreds of millions of U, which is almost higher than that of some public chain protocol layers.

There is a big bubble here. The real value they bring is never that much, and there is no blood-making mechanism in itself.

The market does not give much quota to gamefi as a whole, so this is why many game coins have peaked immediately after opening.

In the small circle of gamefi, with the leading project grabbing market share, it is basically difficult to make Dragon 2 and Dragon 3.

Unless they attract a different user base.

Point 4: Ponzi

The problem with the gamefi economic model. Until now, we have actually seen a lot of reforms and innovations.

There are single token models, dual token models, u-based, bnb-based, etc. There is even a 10-token pool model

Eventually we will find that the price of the currency is infinitely breaking 0, and it is constantly in a death spiral.

Because no matter how the economic model of gamefi is changed, it cannot solve the problem of the capital pool being drained.

It does not have a blood-generating mechanism. The part without business income is all from players constantly buying and selling.

If the price goes up, some people may continue to reinvest. If the price keeps falling, people will keep digging, withdrawing and selling.

In the end, the profit from mining may not be enough to pay the gas fee once, and then this project is almost GG

Therefore, the play-to-earn model itself is a Ponzi scheme and cannot be sustained forever.

Only the win to erarn model will be the final mode of gamefi

The project owner only earns part of the handling fee, and players engage in a zero-sum game

Many elements can be added in the meantime to improve the playability and scalability of the game.

OK. That’s all for this issue. See you next time!