📖MEME Market Value Height Quick Judgment Framework (1)
On-chain MEME, as a fast attention monetization mechanism, presents a weird scene of extreme PvP and Christmas tree 🎄 in the current situation of insufficient liquidity.
Recent ones include $TST and $CAR, and there are many others, which I will not elaborate on one by one.
The current contradiction is that when you see a certain target suddenly emerge, should you enter the market, and when should you exit the market?
In fact, the underlying mechanism of this problem is only one question: what is the expected maximum market value of the current target?
This can be regarded as a magic needle. After you have a vague judgment on the highest market value of a certain target, you can quickly judge by comparing the current market value:
▪️ Can you enter the market?
▪️ When to exit?
You can also understand it as: rushing and arbitrage on the market's maximum consensus.
That is:
Q: Has the current market value reached the maximum consensus height?
A: No: enter the market; Yes: exit the market.
Then, the question becomes, how to quickly determine the maximum consensus height of a certain target/narrative/hot spot, that is, what is the highest market value?
I thought about it for a long time and roughly summarized the following formula for your reference:
💡 Maximum market value height = narrative authenticity * endorsement degree * narrative energy level
Explain them separately.
▪️ Narrative authenticity
Is this thing true? Is it hacked? For example, $TRUMP and $CAR.
This authenticity is not black and white, but a continuous range from 0 to 1. At the beginning, the information is unclear and the probability is low; as more information surfaces later, the probability that the narrative is true is infinitely close to 1.
▪️ Endorsement degree
Endorsement in the financial field is similar to a guarantee, guarantee, and platform. Switching to the MEME field, you can understand it as: shouting orders and milking, they all mean the same thing. ---Continue below
