Bitcoin has experienced high volatility again in the last 24 hours. After breaking through the psychological figure of $ 100,000, the price of the largest crypto asset has fallen again. This movement reflects the uncertainty that still surrounds the crypto market, with investors and traders continuing to react to short-term price changes.
However, there are signs that long-term stability is starting to set in. Experienced investors appear to be holding their positions, which could contribute to the market’s resilience amid the current turmoil.
Bitcoin Takes a Different Approach
According to a BeInCrypto report, the Realized HODL (RHODL) indicator shows that the ratio since Bitcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) is at 23%. This indicates that new demand in this cycle remains high, but the amount of Bitcoin held for more than three months is lower than in previous cycles. In other words, the influx of new demand is happening in short bursts rather than a sustained growth pattern.
The current Bitcoin market cycle also exhibits unique characteristics compared to previous periods. Typically, a bull cycle ends about a year after Bitcoin hits its first ATH in the cycle. However, this time Bitcoin has hit a new ATH in March 2024, but market demand has not reached the same level as the previous rally. This pattern raises questions about how the current market cycle will continue.
In addition, realized volatility in the last three months has remained below 50%. In comparison, previous price rallies were often accompanied by volatility above 80% to 100%. This decrease in volatility indicates that Bitcoin's price movement is becoming more structured, with support from experienced investors who are more careful in making decisions.
More Stable Bullish Trend
The 2023-2025 cycle shows a more controlled price increase pattern compared to previous cycles. While in the past Bitcoin experienced extreme price spikes followed by sharp corrections, the current trend shows a more gradual price increase. This could be an indication of a more stable bull market, which reduces the risk of a drastic price drop.
However, uncertainty remains. If Bitcoin loses the key support level at $95,869, the price could fall further to the $93,625 range. So far, Bitcoin holders have been reluctant to take large profits. However, if selling pressure increases, the market could experience a more significant correction.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to stay above $95,869 and break through $100,000 again, market sentiment could turn more positive. Successfully breaking through this psychological barrier would invalidate the bearish outlook and open up the opportunity for a stronger uptrend.
Conclusion
The current Bitcoin price movement shows more complex market dynamics compared to previous cycles. With lower volatility and a more stable price increase pattern, the market seems to be moving in a more controlled bullish direction.
However, uncertainty remains, especially regarding key support levels. If Bitcoin is able to hold on and re-surface above $100,000, the bullish momentum could continue. Conversely, if selling pressure increases, a deeper correction could occur in the near future.