BTC and the overall market are moving quite sluggishly; a significant positive news is needed to pull it up. There are also concerns about a collapse in the US stock market; any significant positive news in the short term can only come from the US making announcements, so patience is required. This article is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to adjust between 95,000 and 99,000, and it may consolidate within the 90,000 range in the near future. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more favorable it will be for future surges.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 590-640, with TST heat temporarily subsiding; the next focus will be on when a new airdrop will be launched.
Regarding Ethereum: It is expected to fluctuate around 2400-2800, with a weak trend.
Tokens like Dogecoin, Solana, and Ripple are rising; Solana's performance is relatively strong, especially since Ethereum is weak. Solana occasionally has a topic feel and generally fluctuates in the same direction as BTC. Dogecoin is in a downward trend, and the bottom has yet to be seen, which feels quite scary.
Altcoin season index: This index shows that in the past 90 days, about 32 projects among the top 100 by market capitalization have outperformed BTC, remaining flat with yesterday. The overall altcoin market is sluggish.
In terms of news, Binance has launched a service for purchasing cryptocurrencies with US dollars: Binance provides corporate users with the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies through SWIFT bank transfers, requiring completion of corporate KYB verification. This service will gradually expand to more regions. (BTC Strategic Reserve Act): Senate Banking Committee on Digital Assets Chair Cynthia Lummis proposed a bill suggesting the establishment of reserves using 5% of the total BTC supply, which could reduce US debt by half within 20 years. Michael Saylor released BTCTracker information: Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information stating 'The blue line fades. Long live the green dots,' implying a possible increase in BTC holdings after the announcement.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From BTC's candlestick chart, the daily line is still in a box shape, and the daily line is in a downward channel, with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 43, which is in a neutral range and continues to decline.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0084%, and for ETH, it is 0.0048%. Long positions continue to improve, nearing normal levels.
4. Observe the maximum pain point for options over the next 3 months; in three days, it is at 97,000, which has little impact. By the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 10.3 billion nominal value at 85,000 that needs to be noted.
5. Observing spot ETFs: Trading is halted over the weekend, will observe again on Monday.
6. From the Relative Strength Index (RSI), BTC, BNB, and Solana are neutral over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Ripple are weak. Most other mainstream and altcoins have fallen to oversold and weak levels, with low market selling pressure.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in the middle to lower range, at a moderate position.
8. The BTC holding index is at 1.20, which is basically suitable for regular investment in holding coins.
If there is indeed a profit pullback, accept that we are currently in a new consolidation range, which requires some time to return. Avoid randomly opening contracts at this time; you can do some quantitative grid trading near the current position to make some money, but also be prepared in case BTC pulls back to around 86,000 to avoid being liquidated.