Toncoin (TON) has experienced a notable decline in its price due to several interrelated factors:

1. **Increased Supply on Exchanges**: Over a recent week, the number of TON tokens held on exchanges rose by 7%, reaching approximately 1.6 million tokens. This shift suggests that more holders are moving their assets to exchanges, potentially to sell, thereby increasing selling pressure and contributing to the price decline. citeturn0search3

2. **Decline in Whale Activity**: Large holders of TON, often referred to as "whales," have reduced their net holdings by 143% in the same period. This significant decrease indicates that major investors are offloading their assets, which can lead to uncertainty and fear among smaller investors, further driving the price down. citeturn0search3

3. **Decreased Token Burn Rate**: The daily burn rate of Toncoin has dropped to less than 6,000 coins, representing an 85% decline from a previous peak of nearly 40,000 coins. Token burns, which permanently remove coins from circulation, play a critical role in supporting their value. This decline could weaken price stability due to reduced demand. citeturn0search0

4. **Technical Indicators Pointing to Bearish Trends**: Analysts have observed that Toncoin's price has fallen below key moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud indicator, signaling a bearish trend. If the price breaches the $4.44 support level, it could further drop to $3.90, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. citeturn0search0

These factors collectively contribute to the downward pressure on Toncoin's price, reflecting both market dynamics and investor sentiment. $BNB