1. Overview of the Altcoin Cycle

The cryptocurrency market repeats itself roughly every four years, where Bitcoin leads a major bull run, and then capital moves towards altcoins, leading to the “Altseason.” However, this assumption may not always be accurate, as there are significant differences between each cycle.

Over the past decade, there have been bullish cycles, each characterized by different driving factors:

2017: ICO mania takes over, with altcoins seeing massive speculative rallies.

2021: The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), with total value locked (TVL) rising to over $300 billion at its peak.

But in the current cycle, we have not yet seen a similar bullish wave for altcoins, despite the rise of Bitcoin. And presenting an opportunity at the end of 2024 for altcoins to achieve a half-cycle bullish, so what is the reason behind that?

2. Reasons for the current poor performance of altcoins

✅A. Basic factors

1. Lack of usefulness and actual use:

Many alternative projects offer no real benefit, which reduces their appeal.

Memecoins dominate the market but they don't contribute to the evolution of the ecosystem (a fact that most of you have witnessed as the biggest explosions were with memes and Trump's gift).

2. Bitcoin’s institutional dominance:

ETFs have attracted new capital to Bitcoin, making it more attractive compared to altcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC.D) bullishness continues to rise, delaying any chance of a strong altcoin season.

3. Macroeconomic conditions:

Inflation and interest rate decisions are pushing investors towards safe assets like Bitcoin, limiting the liquidity flowing into altcoins.

Tighter regulatory controls in several countries have reduced risk appetite for small businesses.

✅B. Analysis of indicators on the series

1. Daily Active Addresses (DAA):

Ethereum 💵: 700,000 daily active addresses (compared to 2021 peak of 820,000).

Cardano 💵: Only 34,000 addresses compared to 345,000 in 2021.

Shiba Inu 💵: Huge drop to 5,400 addresses from 60,000 previously.

Tron 💵: Slight increase from 2.1 million to 2.4 million.

2. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi:

Currently at $141 billion, it is above its bear market lows but still far from its 2021 peak of $240 billion.

3. Research trends:

Searches for “buy crypto” or “Binance” are still down 50% compared to their 2021 peak.

General interest in altcoins has decreased compared to previous periods.

3. Technical Analysis: Promising Signs for Altcoin Season?

A. TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap without ETH, BTC, USDT, USDC, BNB)

Bounce from major support at 180°, indicating a potential bottom.

Base 4 is formed in a Parabolic pattern, indicating a final uptrend.

Expected final target: 360° at $1.38T.

b. TOTAL2 (market cap of altcoins without BTC)

Similar to TOTAL3 but includes Ethereum.

Expected target: 360° at $1.8T.

Additional confirmation: The target coincides with the "handle" pattern that we have been targeting since last year.

C. BTC Dominance (BTC.D)

It is moving towards 67.77%, which is a key level that represents the end of the cycle at a 360° angle.

When Bitcoin dominance peaks, capital usually flows into altcoins (another opportunity??).

4. Bitcoin 💵: No room for repetition… and no room for chaos

My analyses are interconnected, and anyone who follows seriously will realize how things are arranged scientifically and methodologically. I will not rearrange the analysis repeatedly for those who do not want to make the effort to follow. If you care about developing yourself, the information is available... Review the above, understand the context, otherwise it is better for you to leave the channel.

5. Final Prediction: Is Altcoin Season Coming?


Based on the fundamental and technical data, we can draw some conclusions:

1. Bitcoin dominance is still high and will rise to (67.77%) by maintaining the weekly close above 60.55%, which means liquidity will continue to flow into it.

Most altcoins have yet to show strong signs of entering a broad bullish wave.

However, there are positive movements in TOTAL3 and TOTAL2 which indicates that the altcoins will move in conjunction with the launch of the next Bitcoin wave.



2. Once BTC.D reaches its peak, we may see capital flow to altcoins and a dominance correction leading to some price explosions.

TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 rise to 1.8T and 1.38T levels
It will be a leading indicator of altcoin season and where to exit.



3. The upcoming altcoin season is likely to be more selective, with some sectors (such as AI and Real World Assets) outperforming others.

Institutional liquidity still favors Bitcoin, but as the economic environment stabilizes, some money could move toward DeFi projects and new waves of Web3.

6. Conclusion

The altcoin season is a reality that must be accepted. At the end of 2024, there was a wave that gave an opportunity to most currencies and achieved multiples of their bottoms, but the technical signals indicate another strong opportunity, especially after BTC.D reached 67.77%.

Monitor the indicators on the chain (DAA, TVL, transaction volume) and follow TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 to levels of 1.8T and 1.38T.

If the market moves as expected, the upcoming altcoin season could be more moderate and selective, with a focus on projects that have real utility, meaning not like you expect explosions in all currencies. There are currencies that may not move (Deadcoins) and currencies that will not break until the end of 2024 highs.


Until the right conditions are in place, you need to be patient and monitor the main market indicators.

🌐 In the end, this remains just an analysis based on the science and tools we have reached, while absolute certainty is in the hands of God alone. If I am right, it is a blessing from Him, and if I am wrong, it is an effort that is added to the balance of experience and learning. The important thing is to keep up with the market with a flexible mindset and a balanced strategy, as trading is not certainty, but the art of managing probabilities.
$BTC

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