The collapse of the FTX exchange marks a significant trust crisis in the cryptocurrency industry, with the value logic of its native token FTT having fundamentally reversed. This article rigorously explores the following proposition based on legal procedures, market mechanisms, and industry rules: In the short term, there are speculative opportunities driven by news-related price fluctuations of FTT, but the long-term value going to zero is irreversible, especially caution is needed against the misleading of market sentiment by 'expectations of exchange restarts.'

One, Short-term Speculative Window: News Disturbances and Market Psychological Games

# 1. Market Effects of FTX Restart Expectations

Sensitivity of Bankruptcy Restructuring Dynamics

The 'potential restart possibility' released by the FTX bankruptcy management team (such as CEO John Ray III) will directly stimulate market sentiment. For example:

- In May 2023, FTX's interim management mentioned 'not ruling out the restart of the exchange,' causing FTT to rise more than 40% in a single day;

- Any rumors involving strategic investors (such as traditional financial institutions, Web3 funds) in acquisition negotiations may trigger speculative buying.

- Impact of legal procedural nodes

Key rulings from the bankruptcy court (e.g., asset disposal plans, compensation ratios for creditors) may be overly interpreted by the market as 'positive signals', even though they have no direct correlation with FTT rights.

2. Liquidity Traps and Control Games

- Price manipulation under low circulation

FTT's current circulating market value is less than $300 million (data from September 2023), with an average daily trading volume below $5 million. Major funds can manipulate the market with small amounts of capital, creating technical 'breakout patterns' to induce retail investors to follow suit.

- Market Maker Arbitrage Strategies

Some exchanges (like Gate.io) still retain FTT contract trading, with market makers harvesting volatility profits through both long and short positions, exacerbating short-term price fluctuations.

3. Resonance of Industry Cycles and Market Memory

- Transmission of the Cryptocurrency Bull Market Cycle

If mainstream coins like Bitcoin enter a rising cycle and market risk appetite increases, FTT may be included as an 'oversold asset' in speculative portfolios.

- Misleading Analogies from Historical Cases

Some investors use the recovery after the 2020 BitMEX crisis as an example, believing that FTX may replicate a similar path, ignoring the essential legal differences between the two (BitMEX was not classified as fraudulent and did not issue a platform token).

Two, The Possibility of FTX Restart and the Irrelevance of FTT

1. The Dual Nature of FTX Brand Value

- The double-edged sword effect of historical status

FTX was once the second-largest exchange in the world (with a peak daily trading volume exceeding $40 billion), and its technical architecture and user base still hold certain appeal.

- The Fatal Wound of Brand Stigmatization

The fraud conviction of SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) and the misappropriation of user assets have permanently destroyed FTX's credibility. Referring to the Enron bankruptcy case, the stigmatization of the company has resulted in a market share of less than 1% after its restart.

2. Core Conditions and Pathways for Restart

- Complete separation of legal entities

Any restart must establish a completely new entity (e.g., 'New FTX'), separated from the original FTX's bankrupt assets to avoid joint liabilities.

- The inevitability of new token issuance

- Compliance requirements: The U.S. SEC has classified FTT as a security, and continuing to use the old token will directly trigger lawsuits;

- Economic Reset: The new token needs to be designed with a transparent distribution mechanism (such as 100% issued by the new company), completely severing ties with FTT's historical holdings;

- Case Verification: After the bankruptcy of Voyager Digital, a new token VGX was launched, while the original token VX became worthless.

3. Marginalized Status of FTT Holders

- Rights deprivation under bankruptcy law

According to Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, FTT holders belong to 'subordinated creditors,' and their claims are prioritized lower than user claims, employee wages, and tax debts. Even if the new entity airdrops new tokens to original users, FTT holders have no right to claim compensation.

- Historical data verification:

In the Celsius Network bankruptcy case, CEL token holders received no new token allocations, and user claims were settled in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Three, Irreversibility of Long-term Worthlessness: Locking the Endgame in Four Dimensions

1. The Destructive Nature of Final Legal Judgments

- Final plan for bankruptcy liquidation

Once the court approves asset liquidation (rather than restructuring), FTT will directly become worthless due to the loss of all rights-bearing vehicles. Referring to the QuadrigaCX bankruptcy case, its platform token QCX permanently disappeared with the closure of the exchange.

2. Complete Collapse of Token Economics

- Functional Substitution and Value Extraction

All economic activities of the new platform (e.g., fee discounts, staking rewards) will be linked to the new token, rendering FTT a 'historical legacy code' with no practical use.

- Death spiral of liquidity exhaustion

Mainstream exchanges delisting FTT (such as Binance and Coinbase have already acted), and after trading volume approaches zero, the price will lose its pricing anchor.

3. Ongoing High Pressure from Regulatory Policies

- Global Regulatory Coordination Strangulation

The U.S. SEC, EU MiCA legislation, etc., will strengthen the crackdown on 'security-like tokens', and FTT has become a key regulatory target due to its historical blemish.

- Exclusion of compliant exchanges

Even if FTT survives on some smaller exchanges, mainstream platforms (like Kraken and Gemini) will refuse to list it to avoid legal risks.

4. Permanent Loss of Market Consensus

- Complete withdrawal of institutional funds

Hedge funds and asset management companies have blacklisted FTT, with liquidity maintained only by retail investors and quantitative bots.

Irreversible Collapse of Community Trust

On social platforms like Reddit and Twitter, FTT has been labeled as 'Scam Coin', and new generation investors avoid it.

The financial market is never short of doomsday celebrations, but the final judgment has never been absent.