$WLD Regarding when AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will be realized, experts in the industry have widely varying predictions, with the following main viewpoints:
Optimist perspective
Some tech leaders and entrepreneurs (such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang) have predicted that AGI could be achieved within the next five years, meaning that we could see 'human-level' artificial intelligence as soon as around 2025. Huang believes that as long as AI can pass various 'human tests,' it indicates that the realization of AGI is not far off; Altman has also expressed an optimistic expectation for the early realization of AGI.
Neutral or incrementalist perspective
Other experts believe that although AGI is continuously progressing, its realization is an incremental process that may take a longer time to achieve capabilities comparable to or surpassing humans in multiple fields. For example, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Google DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis have stated that the time window for achieving AGI may be around 2030 or even longer.
Conservative perspective
Some scholars and researchers hold a conservative attitude towards achieving AGI, believing that current technology—especially deep learning methods relying on large-scale language models (LLMs)—still has many fundamental limitations (such as common sense reasoning, dynamic learning, and truly understanding human emotions), and thus AGI may still take decades to realize or could face technological bottleneck issues.
Comprehensive analysis
Overall, there is no unified answer regarding the timeline for achieving AGI. Optimists advocate for achieving it within five years, while neutral parties generally believe it may take ten years or longer, and conservatives still see achieving AGI as a long-term goal. Key factors include:
Computing power and hardware development: Stronger computing resources and more efficient chips are the foundation for achieving AGI.
Algorithm breakthrough: Relying solely on expanding the scale of existing models may not be sufficient to achieve true general intelligence. Significant progress is also needed in reasoning, common sense, and adaptability.
Data and evaluation: High-quality, diverse data and more effective evaluation standards are also important conditions for achieving AGI.
Therefore, whether AGI can be achieved within five years remains highly uncertain. For investors and policymakers, focusing more on the trends of technological development and potential risks, while maintaining an open discussion and cautious attitude, is a more realistic strategy.
The above views are for academic discussion and informational reference only and do not constitute any investment advice or decision-making basis.
