#BTC暴涨不会太远

1. Why is the surge in Bitcoin not too far away?

From the perspective of historical cycles, Bitcoin's halving event is often an important catalyst. Looking back at the past few halvings, Bitcoin's price usually began to really explode **3 to 6 months** after the halving. For example:

- 2020 halving: Bitcoin began to rise sharply about 180 days after the halving.

- 2016 halving: Bitcoin began to rise for the first time about 80 days after the halving, and the real explosion was also half a year later.

At present, the price of Bitcoin has been sideways for nearly 3 months, and market sentiment has gradually shifted from panic to wait-and-see. Combined with the halving cycle and historical laws, the next wave of Bitcoin's explosion may have entered the countdown.

2. Market response to good news and bad news

An interesting phenomenon is that **bad news is often reflected in the price immediately**, while good news takes time to be reflected. For example:

- Bad news: When NVDA's earnings report is lower than expected, the stock price plummets by 20%-30% on the same day; or when the tariff news comes out, the altcoin market collapses instantly, with a drop of up to 30%-50%.

- Good news: Positive news such as Bitcoin's halving, ETF fund inflows, and the US government's friendly policy towards cryptocurrencies often do not immediately drive prices up, but take some time to be gradually reflected in the market.

This "lag" is the norm in the market, especially in the crypto field. The accumulation of good news is like inflating a balloon, and it is only a matter of time before the price explodes.

Before everyone gets excited, I would like to remind you that "not too far away" does not mean that it will start immediately tomorrow, next week or next month. Investing requires patience, especially in the highly volatile field of the crypto market.

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