#TariffHODL This chart shows the long-term growth of Bitcoin within an ascending channel. Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle: after each halving (every four years), the price rises sharply, reaches a peak, and then corrects, but continues to form higher lows.
HODL Strategy Based on 4-Year Cycle
1. Buy in a bear market (1-2 years after the peak)
Historically, after each peak (~2013, ~2017, ~2021) Bitcoin has fallen by 70-80%. These are the best moments to buy when the market is in fear.
Based on the current cycle, the ideal entry points were in 2022-2023.
2. Wait for halving and subsequent growth (approximately 1.5-2 years after the bottom)
Halving (reducing the reward to miners) reduces the supply, which historically led to growth.
The previous halving – spring 2024 – has already taken place and, judging by the schedule, growth may continue until the end of 2025.
3. Take profit at the peak (~1 - 2 years after halving)
In 2021 there was a peak around $69,000. If history repeats itself, the peak of the next cycle will be late 2025 – early 2026, and the price may reach $150,000 - $180,000 (upper border of the channel).
Partial selling at this level will allow you to lock in profits and prepare for the next cycle.
4. Hold some bitcoins long term
In each cycle, the price sets a new minimum higher than the previous one. This means that long-term holders are always in the black.
For example, the minimums after each cycle:
2015: ~$200
2018: ~$3,000
2022: ~$15,500
Therefore, the next bear market (2026-2027) could have a bottom in the $40,000 - $50,000 range.
Recommendations :
Don't panic if there is a correction - this is normal, cycles repeat.
Don't wait for the perfect bottom or peak - buy on dips and sell in parts on rises.
Keep some of your bitcoin in a cold wallet – HODL for years!
Use DCA (averaging) - if it is difficult to catch the moment, buy equal amounts once a month.
Don't forget about taxes and safety - if you take profits, be prepared for tax consequences.
In general, friends, colleagues, if you follow this strategy, in 4-8 years you will be able to sit on the beach and remember how you bought BTC “for only” $100K.