The cryptocurrency boom period is inevitably and rapidly disappearing, making it very difficult for retail investors to survive.
Many people are likely questioning whether this is a bull market, whether there will still be a bull market, and whether there will still be a altcoin season.
1. Bitcoin is entering a long-term slow bull market, while 99% of altcoins will face chronic death.
2. Altcoin seasons occur, but only in localized areas, and they come and go quickly, with significant secondary differentiation.
3. As institutional investors enter the market, the cryptocurrency boom period is rapidly disappearing. In the next round, speculative funds may be even less, and it will no longer be a realm for retail investors.
4. Cryptocurrency has become severely correlated with U.S. stocks, similar to pre-market trading in the stock market, where news is anticipated in advance.
5. The survival space for retail investors will continue to be compressed until it disappears.
6. As institutions accumulate Bitcoin, when the exchange's Bitcoin supply is exhausted, a Bitcoin collapse is not far away.
7. Binance, the world's top exchange, is inevitably on a downward trend, and the increase in cryptocurrency participants has already slowed down significantly.
8. The last round of the DeFi boom on Ethereum has now been replaced by the meme coin boom on Solana. This has occurred on the Solana chain, and Ethereum lacks new narratives and innovations, making it hard for its price to keep pace with Bitcoin.
9. Since Trump and his partner launched their own coins, the on-chain environment has been completely disrupted, with fraudulent coins rampant, draining a large amount of liquidity and further deteriorating the overall on-chain environment.
Why is Bitcoin entering a long-term slow bull market while altcoins face chronic death?
Continuing with the first point, as the spot ETF is approved, the siphoning effect becomes increasingly severe, with all funds concentrating on Bitcoin. Even Ethereum, having lost innovation and narrative, has become precarious.
Bitcoin is likely to experience a long-term slow bull market like gold through ETFs. Gold experienced a ten-year long-term slow bull market, and Bitcoin may replicate gold's trajectory. The facts are proving this; Bitcoin is attracting large amounts of capital for purchase, and its declines will not be significant.
As the number of altcoins increases, their demise becomes inevitable. In 2017, there were only 3,000 types of altcoins globally, whereas now there are 34 million. A large amount of capital is dispersed, making it hard to form a profit-making effect again.
Wherever funds are concentrated, there is a clear profit-making effect. It is evident that funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, making it the most profitable coin in this round. However, due to its high price, most people overlook it.
Altcoin seasons occur, but only in localized areas, and the cycles are very short.
In this round, everyone has seen that if previously altcoins punished 'paper hands' and rewarded 'diamond hands', this time it is the opposite; those who are 'diamond hands' are the ones who are unlucky, compared to 99.9% of altcoins.
Just like after last year's New Year, which lasted for 2-3 months, and this year, when Trump took office, it lasted for 1 month. These events have occurred; it’s just that the duration is shorter and faster due to limited funds, primarily involving quick entries and exits. Looking at on-chain activity, previously it would last for several days before a second wave of speculation; now, it can be completed in half a point within a bullish and bearish cycle.
Most tokens are facing extinction. The high valuations of VC coins have led to sell-offs, and it has become difficult to attract retail investors, who are unwilling to take the risk. This has resulted in a bleak secondary market. In simple terms, there is no profit-making effect; new coins launch at high valuations without leaving any room for speculation for retail investors.
The cryptocurrency boom period is inevitably and rapidly disappearing, making it very difficult for retail investors to survive.
Everyone can feel the difficulty of this round because the number of participants in cryptocurrency has grown significantly, and attracting newcomers has become limited. Institutional participation makes survival more challenging. In a professional market where retail investors compete against institutions, it's hard for retail investors to profit.
Large institutional funds are concentrating on Bitcoin, while retail investors think that cheap altcoins can lead to wealth. However, the differentiation is severe, requiring absolute professional knowledge and selection to succeed. Even on-chain, only those with such capabilities can achieve results.
Even Vitalik Buterin has become disappointed with this circle.
