I apologize for not updating the market in a timely manner due to family matters during the New Year. I will continue to update the cryptocurrency analysis after the holiday. Friends who are interested can continue to follow along to grasp the market.
The drop in Bitcoin this Monday was the result of multiple factors, including market panic triggered by DeepSeek AI, the tariff policy of the Trump administration, El Salvador's cancellation of Bitcoin's legal tender status, excessive market leverage, and macroeconomic uncertainties. This caused Bitcoin to briefly plunge to around 91,000, but it quickly regained its losses in the following days.
Currently, at the monthly K level, the 91,000-90,000 range serves as strong support. If Bitcoin cannot break below this level during its pullback, then there won't be much room for a decline this month, leaning towards a large range oscillation adjustment trend.
At the weekly K level, the overall trend of Bitcoin is currently inclined towards a oscillating pullback sentiment. The K bar shows a cross green energy bar, and the MACD and KDJ indicators are beginning to show a divergence from bullish to bearish sentiment. The current 91,000-90,000 range serves as strong support at the monthly K level. If this support does not break this week, there won't be much fluctuation in the market.
Looking at the daily level, the continuous resonance of the MA5 10-day moving average pressing down on the price has also led to a current bearish sentiment for Bitcoin. In terms of indicators, MACD and KDJ are maintaining a downward bearish trend, and the TD indicator has reached TD8. According to normal indicator calculations, the market before this week is still inclined towards a main trend of oscillating downwards.
At the 4-hour level, the current price is running near the lower Bollinger Band. The MA moving averages and MACD indicators indicate a weak downward oscillation trend. Combining with the hourly chart, the intraday price is inclined towards a downward oscillation trend. Given the current market situation, the trading volume is relatively weak, and fluctuations won't be too large. Therefore, my personal view for the day is that a rebound and maintaining short positions is relatively stable.
Trading suggestion: Bitcoin: Short at the 96,500-97,500 range. Target: 95,000-92,000. Stop loss at 98,200.
The current market situation is expected to be sufficient. For the short term, let's focus here, and we will analyze it in detail step by step later.#非农就业数据来袭 #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ #比特币国家战略储备 