Bitcoin's February 8th Market Update
Good evening everyone, a brief update on the market. Yesterday I indicated that Bitcoin was consolidating in the range of 95,500 to 99,500, while Ethereum was in a range of 2,580 to 2,880. In actual market movements, Bitcoin was stronger than expected, but overall remained within the range, while Ethereum continued to be weak, like a helpless underdog.
We accurately predicted two rounds of movement yesterday morning and evening, successfully capturing both. Since the evening of the 6th, Bitcoin failed to stabilize around 99,000, and looking at the 15-minute candlestick, it has been under pressure. As of this morning, it has been fluctuating in a narrow range between 95,500 and 97,000. At 9:45 AM, the 15-minute candlestick showed volume around 98,000, which could become the peak of the next wave. However, it rebounded at 97,200 and was recovered by noon. During the next upward attempt, the pressure was noticeably lower. Buying is average, indicating that everyone is likely waiting for evening news before making decisions.
The non-farm payroll data released today indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate for January is 4%, with an expectation of 4.10% and a previous value of 4.10%. The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population for January is 143,000, with an expectation of 170,000 and a previous value revised from 256,000 to 307,000. These figures exceeded market expectations, stirring market enthusiasm. When Bitcoin retraced to 97,200, there were five consecutive positive 15-minute candles, rising nearly 3,000 points. In contrast, Ethereum's performance was lackluster, failing to test even 2,800. After holding at a high level for a while, shorts will be liquidated, and during the next upward breakthrough, it is often a sharp spike to the top.
As long as Bitcoin attempts to rally, Ethereum will follow. If there is FOMO, and Ethereum does not meet expectations, it will drag Bitcoin down. This was exactly the movement seen during the crash on the 3rd of this month. Therefore, once this rebound is over, we can continue to attempt shorting, as this is a good position.
Currently, Bitcoin can be shorted at the 100,000 price point, with a stop loss set around 101,245, aiming down to 98,200-97,400. For Ethereum, we are looking at 2,735-2,707. Ethereum is more likely to retract for a while and then oscillate narrowly, with dense fluctuations, before moving in the direction of Bitcoin. Our short position has been cut after losses, and we have turned to long to balance it out. I hope this round of shorts will provide an opportunity to take it down.
