Is the bull market for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies still alive? This is the biggest question many people have after this round of plunge. My view is that it is still alive, at least for now. Firstly, we need to determine if the bull market for Bitcoin is still there. In the short term, since it hasn't dropped below 86,000, it should still be worth looking forward to. However, the altcoin season is hard to predict, as every bull market experiences a plunge that brings altcoins down. Many people use leverage when trading altcoins, and in the end, it all goes to zero. Currently, the market is very tense, choosing a direction again, and some positive news also requires time to be released. In the short term, it is easily affected by the decline of the US stock market, making it difficult to operate. Let's review the next trend. This article is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to adjust between 95,000-99,000, continuing to wait for a new trend to appear. Currently, it is mainly important to watch that the U.S. stock market does not experience a significant drop, otherwise it will still be affected.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 560-620, waiting for a new airdrop to pull it up.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2600-3000. Currently, the 4-hour line is still consolidating and reselecting direction.
The performance of the altcoin is weak, showing a weak trend. In the short term, it needs good news to significantly move upwards. Solana continues to weaken, and if it can get into an ETF in the medium to long term, it is worth looking forward to, or wait for a new MEME to appear. The risk of Ripple is still high, with support levels too low. The rebound of the dollar is weak and may continue to weaken.
Altcoin season index. This index shows that in the last 90 days, about 32 projects among the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed BTC, which is 3 less than yesterday. In the short term, do not expect an altcoin season, as the probability of selecting good coins is too low.
From the news perspective, bipartisan members of the U.S. House of Representatives have proposed a resolution supporting blockchain technology and digital assets, emphasizing their economic potential, regulatory clarity, and the transparency and efficiency of blockchain. They warned that a lack of regulation could cause the U.S. to lose its innovative edge, and lawmakers are calling for regulatory action, emphasizing the need to create a regulatory environment that promotes innovation. French Hill, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Bryan Steil, chairman of the Digital Assets Subcommittee, released a discussion draft proposing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. It requires issuers of payment stablecoins to obtain approval from regulatory agencies, meet 1:1 asset reserve requirements, regularly disclose reserve situations, and undergo audits and regulation. It prohibits re-staking reserve assets, sets customer fund isolation requirements, and establishes a two-year ban on stablecoins relying on their own digital asset collateral. The Czech President signed a bill that exempts capital gains tax for Bitcoin holders who hold for more than three years. This bill was unanimously approved by the Czech Parliament on December 6, 2024, aimed at encouraging long-term holding of Bitcoin.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, it continues the trend from yesterday. The 4-hour line briefly entered an isosceles triangle consolidation, while the daily line is still in a box-shaped pattern, waiting for a new direction from the bulls and bears to appear.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: It is currently 44, in the neutral range, which is 5 less than yesterday, just one step away from fear. Currently, the overall market is showing a quiet scenario in the short term.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0049%, and for ETH, it is 0.0010%. Bearish sentiment is still strong, while bulls remain weak.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months, in the next three days at 97,000-98,000, the impact is not significant for now. At the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 10.3 billion nominal amounts at 85,000 that needs attention.
5. Observing spot ETFs: Yesterday, BTC outflow was 1452, and ETH inflow was 3829. There is currently no clear short-term trend, and even institutions have significant divergence.
6. From the RSI relative strength index, BTC and the dollar are neutral in 24 hours, while ETH, the altcoin, Solana, and Ripple have weakened in 24 hours, and BNB has dropped to oversold. Most other mainstream and altcoins have dropped to oversold and weak, with low market selling pressure.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in the middle-lower range, at a moderate position.
8. The BTC holding index is at 1.21, which is basically suitable for regular investment and holding.
If you are optimistic about Bitcoin and feel that Bitcoin is relatively safe right now, while holding a lot of other mainstream and altcoins, and are worried about missing out on sales, then just change a little bit each day, gradually moving towards something safer.