The U.S. January Non-Farm Payroll report will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on February 7.
Here is the forward-looking analysis and market expectations regarding this report: Market Expectations
New Jobs: The market generally expects that the U.S. January non-farm employment number will increase by 169,000 to 170,000, a slowdown from December's 256,000.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, unchanged from last month.
Average Hourly Wage: The average hourly wage in January is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and by 3.7% to 3.8% year-on-year, a decrease from December's 3.9%.
Market Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: If the January non-farm data performs strongly, it may further weaken market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and may even lead the market to reconsider the possibility of a rate increase. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it may increase market concerns about an economic slowdown, thereby enhancing rate cut expectations.
Impact on the U.S. Dollar and Gold: Non-farm data exceeding expectations typically supports the U.S. dollar and is bearish for gold; conversely, data falling short of expectations may be bearish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for gold.
Impact on the Stock Market: Strong non-farm data may indicate that the U.S. economy remains healthy, which could have a positive impact on the stock market, but may also raise concerns about rising inflation.