佛文社区
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February 7, 2025.
The tug-of-war has just begun~
Current trend.
Coins represented by ETH and UNI have already fallen below the yearly line and are forming a certain support near the weekly double bottom.
Coins represented by XRP and AAVE have not yet fallen below the yearly line, and mean reversion (to the yearly line) will still pose a threat to the market.
Half of the coins have fallen below the yearly line, while the other half are still reverting.
It should be noted that coins with weekly double bottoms have little downward energy to harm the market. The only coins that can harm the market are those with prices diverging too high from the yearly line, such as XRP and AAVE.
Is the mean reversion energy of XRP and AAVE significant?
Or is the upward energy of ETH and UNI with weekly double bottoms greater?
Which of these two energies dominates? Who leads the market?
My inference is that the bears will dominate in the first quarter, with the mean reversion force represented by XRP being significant, repeatedly pulling ETH and UNI back to the weekly double bottom oscillation, suppressing their rise.
Until the prices of coins like XRP approach the yearly line and oscillate,
Until more than 90% of coins fall below the yearly line.
When the threat to the market is minimal, and they can no longer be suppressed, it will be the bulls' turn to take the lead, with coins represented by the weekly double bottoms starting to counterattack.
This will take time; at least in the first quarter, the bulls cannot turn the tide.
Moreover, the main dominant force in the market, Bitcoin, also needs to (move sideways instead of falling) correct for several months until the price approaches the yearly line.
As long as Bitcoin oscillates (moves sideways instead of falling) for a few months.
90% of altcoins will still have to fall below the yearly line and remain sealed in a sideways pattern.
Although the first quarter is dangerous, it also hides cheap opportunities.
Generally speaking, only when optimistic sentiment disappears will the market hit the bottom, characterized by a “sideways seal” with little fluctuation.
The more the market deleverages, the less leverage can be taken.
When the market is no longer pessimistic, the funds released from deleveraging in the first quarter can be used to purchase assets, boosting the market.
Interestingly, many people are now afraid to buy.
The logic is: “The bull market is gone, altcoins have no future, and I dare not touch them anymore.” This logic supports their failure to buy at the weekly double bottom, using excuses to fully rationalize their fear.
Hopefully, in the next wave of the market, they will align their knowledge and actions and not buy altcoins.
The tug-of-war has just begun~
Current trend.
Coins represented by ETH and UNI have already fallen below the yearly line and are forming a certain support near the weekly double bottom.
Coins represented by XRP and AAVE have not yet fallen below the yearly line, and mean reversion (to the yearly line) will still pose a threat to the market.
Half of the coins have fallen below the yearly line, while the other half are still reverting.
It should be noted that coins with weekly double bottoms have little downward energy to harm the market. The only coins that can harm the market are those with prices diverging too high from the yearly line, such as XRP and AAVE.
Is the mean reversion energy of XRP and AAVE significant?
Or is the upward energy of ETH and UNI with weekly double bottoms greater?
Which of these two energies dominates? Who leads the market?
My inference is that the bears will dominate in the first quarter, with the mean reversion force represented by XRP being significant, repeatedly pulling ETH and UNI back to the weekly double bottom oscillation, suppressing their rise.
Until the prices of coins like XRP approach the yearly line and oscillate,
Until more than 90% of coins fall below the yearly line.
When the threat to the market is minimal, and they can no longer be suppressed, it will be the bulls' turn to take the lead, with coins represented by the weekly double bottoms starting to counterattack.
This will take time; at least in the first quarter, the bulls cannot turn the tide.
Moreover, the main dominant force in the market, Bitcoin, also needs to (move sideways instead of falling) correct for several months until the price approaches the yearly line.
As long as Bitcoin oscillates (moves sideways instead of falling) for a few months.
90% of altcoins will still have to fall below the yearly line and remain sealed in a sideways pattern.
Although the first quarter is dangerous, it also hides cheap opportunities.
Generally speaking, only when optimistic sentiment disappears will the market hit the bottom, characterized by a “sideways seal” with little fluctuation.
The more the market deleverages, the less leverage can be taken.
When the market is no longer pessimistic, the funds released from deleveraging in the first quarter can be used to purchase assets, boosting the market.
Interestingly, many people are now afraid to buy.
The logic is: “The bull market is gone, altcoins have no future, and I dare not touch them anymore.” This logic supports their failure to buy at the weekly double bottom, using excuses to fully rationalize their fear.
Hopefully, in the next wave of the market, they will align their knowledge and actions and not buy altcoins.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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