Another new year has arrived, and happy new year to all friends! Looking at Bitcoin, after reaching a new high of 110,000 in January with Trump's inauguration, it has faced a decline of nearly 20,000 points. This is also an inevitable result of the long-term evolution of the market: good news has been fully priced in.

Is Bitcoin welcoming a new narrative? Or is there new good news driving its speculation? This is the direction we need to pay attention to next.

The virtual market will ultimately reflect reality. This is a real problem that all markets must face, and the core of the movement in the crypto market certainly depends on the liquidity of assets. For enterprises and entities, the first quarter is crucial, which indirectly leads to one of the important factors that every year at the beginning, the crypto market enters a dormant period. At the same time, as the main "enterprises" in the virtual market: platforms and first-tier project parties, do they not also need a good start?

At the same time, regarding the macro narrative, Li Mu is similarly not optimistic. Regarding Trump's series of declarations about creating a national crypto strategy before his inauguration, the "mess" he faces upon re-entering the White House clearly has a lower priority. Therefore, before the emergence of new narrative speculation, Li Mu maintains a cautious attitude towards the overall market.

Returning to the market trend, although this round of decline to the 90,000 mark has received buying support, the behavior of breaking below the 100,000 mark still puts pressure on the overall market, turning support into resistance. Therefore, even if the market can make a good recovery later, the premise is to break above the two resistance levels of 99,000 and 100,000 again; otherwise, these two selling points will prompt the market to test the bottom once more.

In the short term, we can prioritize focusing on the 15-minute level upward movement. Aggressive friends can look to buy at the current price, targeting around 99,000, and choose to reverse based on resistance conditions, while the conservative side only needs to prepare for the cautious setup around 2760-2790.