Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Report Background
Bitcoin, the disruptive cryptocurrency, has attracted global attention in recent years. Particularly in 2025, its price experienced dramatic fluctuations, sparking enthusiastic discussions among investors and analysts. This year, the implementation of Trump's policies had a far-reaching impact on the Bitcoin market. This article aims to explore the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and its market response in this context, as well as industry insiders' predictions for Bitcoin prices.
The policies of the Trump administration have brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to the Bitcoin market. He has promised to remove unfriendly regulatory measures against Bitcoin and establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee. These initiatives have greatly boosted market confidence and driven up Bitcoin prices. Furthermore, Trump has classified Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset, further strengthening its position.
In this context, the launch of the Bitcoin ETF has become the focus of market attention. Since the U.S. approved the first Bitcoin ETF, market trading activity has surged, attracting significant capital inflows. This innovative product provides investors with a convenient investment channel, driving up Bitcoin prices.
1.2 Research Objectives
This report aims to explore in depth the impact of Trump's policies on the Bitcoin market, reveal the process of launching the Bitcoin ETF and its market response, as well as industry insiders' predictions for Bitcoin prices. Through this research, we hope to provide investors with a comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin market, helping them better understand market dynamics and make informed investment decisions.
Chapter 2: Overview of Trump and the Cryptocurrency Market
2.1 The Impact of Trump's Policies on the Bitcoin Market
The Trump administration's attitude and policies towards the Bitcoin market have had profound effects on its development and price volatility. Through a series of policy measures, Trump has significantly changed the environment for the cryptocurrency market. After being elected president, Trump repeatedly demonstrated his support for cryptocurrencies to the public. He promised to remove the unfriendly regulatory measures against Bitcoin and established a cryptocurrency advisory committee, as well as a position responsible for cryptocurrency policy in the White House. These measures aim to regulate Bitcoin and make it more competitive globally, thereby boosting market confidence.
Trump has also proposed classifying Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset. He stated that the U.S. will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve and may even use Bitcoin to repay part of the national debt. This concept greatly enhances Bitcoin's status and value, attracting significant capital inflows into the market. The market generally believes that the proactive attitude of the Trump administration towards regulation, especially efforts to remove unfriendly policies towards cryptocurrencies and establish strategic reserves, will have a profound impact on the market. Despite the Trump administration's proactive measures in cryptocurrency market regulation, its impact on the Bitcoin market is not entirely positive.
Changes in the Trump administration's policies could bring market volatility, especially as large capital inflows may trigger dramatic price fluctuations. Trump's aggressive policies could also provoke regulatory responses from other countries, potentially affecting the stability of the global cryptocurrency market. The Trump administration's support and promotion of the Bitcoin market have led to significant structural changes during its term. These changes in market structure are mainly reflected in the expanding global demand for U.S. digital asset-type funds (such as Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs) and cryptocurrency derivative contracts. Since Trump's election, trading activity has surged, successfully pushing Bitcoin trading prices to the historic milestone of $100,000. Data shows that the share of daily Bitcoin to U.S. dollar trading conducted during U.S. hours has significantly increased from 40% in 2021 to about 53%.
The liquidity of the Bitcoin market has significantly improved under Trump. The launch of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF and the surge in trading activity have increased market liquidity. Unsettled contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) reached an all-time high this year. The participation of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has significantly increased under Trump. The participation of institutional cryptocurrency investments led by large asset management firms on Wall Street has completely shifted the 'dominance of cryptocurrency liquidity' towards the U.S. The involvement of institutional investors has not only increased market liquidity but also made the market structure more mature and stable.
The price volatility of the Bitcoin market has tended to ease under Trump's administration. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility will ease, similar to precious metals, as ETFs provide more stable funding flows to the market, Bitcoin's volatility should improve. He believes that Bitcoin's three-month market volatility (spot level) should decrease from the current 55% to 45%.
2.2 Changes in the Structure of the Bitcoin Market
The supportive policies of the Trump administration for the Bitcoin market have not only influenced market sentiment and price trends but also brought significant changes to market structure. These changes are mainly reflected in the shift in market focus, increased participation of mainstream investors, enhanced market liquidity, and improved market infrastructure. With Trump's re-election, the center of the cryptocurrency market has gradually shifted from Asia back to the United States. This shift is not only reflected in the distribution of Bitcoin trading volumes but also in the global demand for dollar-denominated digital asset funds and cryptocurrency derivative contracts.
The Trump administration's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum has attracted a significant number of mainstream investors into the market. Data shows that since Trump's election, the 'iShares Bitcoin ETF' issued by BlackRock has attracted significant capital inflows, becoming one of the most successful funds in history. Since its launch in January of this year, the cumulative trading volume of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $500 billion, with net inflows of approximately $36 billion. Unsettled contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) reached an all-time high this year.
With the support of the Trump administration, the liquidity of the Bitcoin market has significantly increased. Since Trump's election, nearly $10 billion has flowed into U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin. Unsettled contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) reached an all-time high this year. Although the Trump administration has implemented supportive policies for the cryptocurrency market, changes in market structure have also brought some challenges. The high volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as regulatory uncertainty, remain major issues facing the market.
2.3 The Launch of the Bitcoin ETF and Its Market Response
The launch of the Bitcoin ETF marks a significant turning point for the cryptocurrency market. In 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), an event seen as an important sign of the cryptocurrency market entering mainstream investment. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the market response has been extremely positive. Data shows that since the U.S. election on November 5, a total of 12 funds launched by issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments have attracted approximately $9.9 billion in net inflows, helping the total assets of such funds increase to about $113 billion.
The launch of the Bitcoin ETF has not only attracted a large number of retail investors but also sparked the interest of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market. The 'iShares Bitcoin ETF' issued by BlackRock, the largest asset management giant in the world, has become one of the most successful ETF issuance projects in U.S. stock market history. Unsettled contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) reached an all-time high this year. The positive market response to the Bitcoin ETF is also reflected in the significant rise in Bitcoin prices. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has successfully broken the $100,000 barrier, reaching a historical high of $106,495 in December 2024.
Some industry experts and analysts hold an optimistic view on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin prices. They believe that the launch of the Bitcoin ETF will further drive up Bitcoin prices.
Chapter 3: Analysis of Industry Insiders' Predictions for Bitcoin Prices
3.1 Predictions on Bitcoin Prices from Major Institutions
Under the impetus of Trump's policies, Bitcoin price predictions show an optimistic trend. Here are some key predictions and their bases:
· CryptoQuant predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach between $145,000 and $249,000 in 2025. This prediction is based on market inflows and improved policy environment.
· Standard Chartered Bank predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach $500,000 by the end of 2028. This prediction considers Bitcoin's role as a safe haven and inflation hedging tool, as well as improvements in market regulation.
· CoinShares predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach between $80,000 and $150,000 in 2025. Their prediction is based on the positive impact of Trump's policies and the market demand for Bitcoin ETFs.
· Matrixport predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach $160,000 in 2025. Their prediction takes into account the increase in market liquidity and macroeconomic trends.
· Galaxy Digital predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and $185,000 in the fourth quarter. This prediction is based on institutional adoption and market demand.
· Standard Chartered Bank and Sussex University predict: Bitcoin prices could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction considers institutional capital inflows and market confidence in Bitcoin.
· Bit Mining predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025. This prediction is based on market supply and demand relationships and the policy environment.
· Maple Finance predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach between $180,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction is based on market demand and expectations of Bitcoin's strategic reserve.
· Nexo predicts: Bitcoin prices could reach $250,000 in 2025. This prediction is based on Bitcoin's role as a safe haven and market demand.
Although there are differences in these predictions, they all point to a positive outlook for the Bitcoin market, especially driven by Trump's policies.
3.2 Discussion on the Reasonableness of Predictions
There are significant differences in predictions for Bitcoin prices among industry insiders, making the reasonableness of these predictions a focal point of attention. The reasonableness of predictions should be assessed from multiple perspectives, such as the impact of Trump's policies, market demand, the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin, and the macroeconomic environment.
The proactive promotion of Trump's policies has significantly boosted market confidence, providing strong support for the rise in Bitcoin prices. The surge in market demand for Bitcoin ETFs has also driven up prices, as Bitcoin ETFs offer investors a convenient and secure investment channel. The supply of Bitcoin and market demand are also key factors determining its price. The Bitcoin halving event in 2024 reduced supply, further driving up prices.
The macroeconomic environment also has a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. Despite concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin, as a safe haven asset, has attracted significant capital inflows, further pushing up prices. As Bitcoin is gradually accepted by the mainstream market, it shows an upward price trend. However, Bitcoin's price volatility remains high, facing risks such as regulatory concerns and technical security.
There are both optimistic and cautious viewpoints regarding Bitcoin price predictions within the industry. Optimists believe Bitcoin will continue its upward momentum, while cautious investors emphasize price volatility and potential risks. Despite some institutions predicting that Bitcoin prices could reach $200,000 or higher in 2025, investors should maintain a cautious attitude towards these predictions, fully considering market uncertainties and managing risks.
In summary, while industry insiders' predictions for Bitcoin prices are optimistic, they need to be approached with caution. These predictions provide references for investors but should be combined with various factors to comprehensively assess the real situation of the Bitcoin market and make rational decisions.
Chapter 4: Analysis of Market Sentiment and Confidence
4.1 The Boost of Trump's Policies on Market Sentiment
In 2024, Trump successfully won re-election as President of the United States, his friendly policies towards Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market greatly boosted market sentiment, causing Bitcoin prices to break through historical highs. Trump emphasized the removal of unfriendly regulatory measures against Bitcoin, such as the dismissal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, and the establishment of a cryptocurrency advisory committee. These measures reduced market uncertainty and enhanced investor confidence. He plans to classify Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset to repay part of the national debt and has committed not to create a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This elevated Bitcoin's status and value, making it a tool for hedging against inflation.
The Trump administration has promoted the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, with the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved by the SEC in 2024, further boosting market sentiment. Since its launch, the total trading volume of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $500 billion, with net inflows of approximately $36 billion. The Trump administration has also appointed several cryptocurrency supporters to key economic positions, enhancing market confidence in the cryptocurrency sector. He also nominated conservative lawyer and cryptocurrency enthusiast Atkins to head the SEC. The positive expectations of Trump's policies generated strong confidence among market participants, driving up Bitcoin prices.
Since Trump's victory, the total market value of the crypto market has surged by about $1.2 trillion. The improvement in market sentiment is also reflected in the volatility of Bitcoin prices, with Standard Chartered Bank expecting Bitcoin's three-month market volatility to decrease from the current 55% to 45%.
4.2 The Relationship between Changes in Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Market Sentiment
The relationship between Bitcoin market sentiment and price-to-earnings ratio is complex, and market sentiment is largely influenced by the macroeconomic environment, policy environment, and specific events.
Market sentiment has a direct impact on Bitcoin's price-to-earnings ratio fluctuations. For example, the Trump administration's friendly policies towards Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have strengthened market confidence, driving Bitcoin prices to soar.
Market sentiment is also influenced by macroeconomic factors. When market sentiment is optimistic, investors are often willing to pay higher prices for Bitcoin, thus driving up its price-to-earnings ratio.
Specific market events can also affect market sentiment and Bitcoin's price-to-earnings ratio. For example, the launch of the Bitcoin ETF is seen as an important milestone for the cryptocurrency market, greatly boosting market sentiment.
The speculative nature of the Bitcoin market is also an important factor affecting its price-to-earnings ratio and market sentiment. The high volatility of Bitcoin prices can lead to significant differences in price-to-earnings ratios over different periods, and fluctuations in market sentiment can directly impact the supply and demand relationship of Bitcoin, thus affecting its price and market performance.
The relationship between Bitcoin market sentiment and price-to-earnings ratio indicates that market sentiment largely determines the price trends and performance of Bitcoin. Investors should closely monitor changes in market sentiment and reasonably assess Bitcoin's price-to-earnings ratio to make informed investment decisions.
Chapter 5: The Relation between the Bitcoin Market and the Macroeconomic Environment
5.1 The Impact of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin prices are influenced by various factors, among which macroeconomic fluctuations are particularly significant. The global economic situation plays a decisive role in Bitcoin prices, mainly affecting its price through the following channels:
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates
Monetary policies of central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, are key factors affecting Bitcoin prices. Loose monetary policies usually lead to rising inflation, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, thereby benefiting Bitcoin. Conversely, tightening policies may lead to a drop in Bitcoin prices. In 2025, concerns over Federal Reserve policies led to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.
Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Bitcoin is seen as a tool against inflation. In 2024, global inflationary pressures increased, leading to a rise in Bitcoin prices. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that by the end of 2028, Bitcoin prices could reach $500,000.
Global Economic Uncertainty
During times of increased economic uncertainty, investors tend to shift funds to the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. In 2025, as global economic uncertainty intensified, Bitcoin prices continued to rise.
Capital Market Performance
Capital market fluctuations have a direct impact on Bitcoin prices. The performance of the stock and bond markets can influence Bitcoin prices. The economic policies of the Trump administration have led to capital market volatility, thereby affecting Bitcoin prices.
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical events can also affect Bitcoin prices. In 2025, geopolitical risks intensified, but Bitcoin prices did not experience significant fluctuations, demonstrating its characteristics as a safe-haven asset.
Data and Events
Historical data shows that the release of macroeconomic data and key economic events (such as the Federal Reserve meetings) have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. In 2024, better-than-expected U.S. economic data led to a drop in Bitcoin prices.
5.2 The Role of Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Asset
Bitcoin is gradually being viewed as a safe haven asset, especially during times of increased market uncertainty. Its safe-haven attributes are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Market Uncertainty
Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has performed remarkably. In 2025, as global economic uncertainty increased, Bitcoin prices broke through the $100,000 barrier.
Policy and Regulatory Changes
The policy changes of the Trump administration have enhanced Bitcoin's status as a safe haven. He views cryptocurrencies as tools against inflation and plans to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
The volatility of Bitcoin is related to its characteristics as a safe-haven asset.
The high volatility of Bitcoin has historically been an obstacle to its widespread acceptance. However, as the market has developed, Bitcoin's volatility has gradually decreased, and its safe-haven properties have received more recognition.
Investor Structure and Market Trust
The investor structure of Bitcoin has undergone significant changes, with increased participation from institutional investors and large asset management companies enhancing market trust.
Practical Application and Acceptance
The practical application and acceptance of Bitcoin are also increasing, making it a safe-haven asset for institutional investors.
Comparison of Bitcoin with Traditional Safe-Haven Assets
Compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, Bitcoin has advantages in certain aspects.
Future Outlook
As the structure of the Bitcoin market matures and the regulatory environment improves, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties will receive more recognition.
In conclusion, the macroeconomic environment significantly affects Bitcoin prices, and the role of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset is gradually being recognized. In the future, as market conditions and investor structures change, Bitcoin's price and safe-haven properties will continue to receive attention.
Chapter 6: Conclusion
6.1 Trump's Policies and the Outlook for the Bitcoin Market
The proactive promotion of the cryptocurrency market by the Trump administration has had a profound impact on policy, regulation, and market structure. The Trump administration has adjusted regulatory policies, abolished restrictive legislation, and supported the development of Bitcoin.
Additionally, the Trump administration's push for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has prompted capital inflows into the market, enhancing market confidence. He also plans to classify Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset, further enhancing its position. These policies have driven changes in the structure of the Bitcoin market, making the U.S. the center of global cryptocurrency trading.
Looking ahead, if the Trump administration maintains a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies and continues to promote relevant policies and regulatory reforms, the Bitcoin market is expected to maintain a growth trend. These factors collectively drive up the price of Bitcoin, which may reach $200,000 or even higher by the end of 2025.
6.2 Main Findings of the Report
Since the Trump administration, the Bitcoin market has experienced significant changes in policy promotion, market sentiment, capital flows, and macroeconomic environment. Trump's policies have had a profound impact on the Bitcoin market.
In terms of Bitcoin price predictions, there are some differences in predictions from various institutions, but there is a general consensus that its price will reach historical highs in 2025. Despite the uncertainties in Bitcoin price predictions, market sentiment significantly influences price trends.
The impact of the macroeconomic environment on Bitcoin prices cannot be ignored; during economic fluctuations and increased uncertainty, Bitcoin's role as a safe haven becomes particularly important.
In summary, Trump's policies have had a profound impact on the Bitcoin market, and Bitcoin price predictions and market responses indicate the potential and uncertainties of the Bitcoin market. Investors and industry insiders should closely monitor policies and market sentiment, and manage risks effectively.