There are three groups of people who are the most uncomfortable among cryptocurrency traders. The first is the longs who held onto their orders after the price fell, and now they don’t know if they can recover their losses every day. The second is the altcoin traders who have been dragged down by BTC and feel that they can’t recover after falling too much. The third is the traders who have been liquidated and are worried that if the price goes back up, they will be like fools and lose money. What to do next? Let’s review it. This article is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #比特币盘整将持续多久？
Let me talk about the conclusion first, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to adjust between 95,000 and 100,000. We are currently waiting for a new trend. Since it is basically suitable for hoarding coins, you can invest a little bit if you feel itchy hands.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate around 560-630, with a new airdrop, but it is not strong enough, so it is necessary to wait further.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 2600-3000. After institutions increased their holdings by 100,000 coins the night before last, it has strengthened somewhat, but compared to BTC, it remains weak.
DOGE is very weak, maintaining support at 0.227 downwards, and has hard resistance at 0.41 upwards. SOL has weakened in the past two days, related to the decline in on-chain transaction volume, needing events to continue to drive it. However, in the short term, both weekly and daily charts are still in a downward state, and further declines could allow for continued accumulation. XRP remains high risk, as previously indicated, mainly due to the excessive rise earlier, with too many profit-taking positions and low support levels. BCH has rebounded somewhat, gaining strength in the short term, but has not yet exited the downward channel.
Altcoin Season Index, this index shows that in the past 90 days, about 35 projects among the top 100 market cap altcoins have outperformed BTC, which is 2 fewer than yesterday, again verifying that this bull market is a BTC bull market.
From the news side, according to BlockBeats, Santiment disclosed that in February, the number of wallets holding 100+ BTC increased by 135, while those holding less than 100 BTC decreased by 138,680. Small retail investors are liquidating due to volatility, while large holders are concentrated, which is beneficial for market cap rise, but the impact may take weeks or months to manifest. According to reports from Wu, supported by the Trump administration, the U.S. banking industry is expanding cooperation with altcoins. The FDIC plans to revise guidelines to allow banks to engage in crypto business without regulatory approval. Banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have already tested blockchain and altcoin businesses, and the FDIC is considering relaxing regulations to allow custodial services and 'tokenized deposits.' According to Wu, QCP Capital pointed out that David Sacks' meeting disappointed the market. The tensions between China and the U.S. need to be treated cautiously, as global market uncertainty increases. The delay of tariffs on Mexico and Canada provides relief to the market, but the U.S.-China tariff war remains the focus.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From BTC's K-line, the 4-hour line briefly entered an isosceles triangle consolidation, while the daily line is still in a box shape, waiting for a new direction for bulls and bears to emerge.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 49, which is in the neutral range, 5 less than yesterday. The market has temporarily lost its heat.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0018%, ETH is 0.0000%, with strong bearish sentiment and weak bullishness.
4. Observe the maximum pain point of options within the next three months. In the next three days, it's between 95000-100000, which temporarily has little impact. By the end of March, there is a maximum pain point of 10.3 billion nominal amount at 85000, which will further increase the impact.
5. Spot ETF observation: Yesterday BTC inflow was 679, ETH inflow was 6629, with continued inflow, but the volume is relatively low.
6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC and SOL are neutral in the past 24 hours, while ETH, DOGE, and XRP have dropped to weak levels, and BNB has dropped to oversold. Most other mainstream and altcoins have also fallen to oversold and weak levels, and the entire market is showing signs of low selling pressure.
7. From the Top-Down Index, it is currently in the lower middle, at a moderate position.
8. BTC HODL Index has dropped to 1.21, which is basically suitable for regular investments in HODL.
In any case, moving towards mainstream is the trend. In the short term among various coins, as long as they rise, try to exchange for BTC. This is the most obvious trend seen in recent sharp declines.