My theory for the bitcoin and altseason cycle.

1. First part of the cycle: The peak of expectations from previous years

Context: Before a halving, Bitcoin usually attracts a lot of attention, mainly due to the expectation of a supply shortage. This can result in a phase of strong appreciation, where the price of Bitcoin is driven not only by demand, but also by speculation around the future impact of the halving.

Characteristics: During this phase, most of the market is focused on the price rally. However, expectations can often be overestimated, leading to a speculation bubble. When these expectations do not materialize as expected, the market tends to go through a correction.

Transition moment: After the halving, the actual adoption of Bitcoin and the scarcity in the issuance of new units do not generate the expected effects immediately. This phenomenon can lead to a slowdown or even a correction in the price. 2. Second part of the cycle: The real impact of the halving in the following year

Context: The halving reduces the Bitcoin mining reward, which means that the supply of new coins decreases. However, this effect is reflected in the price more clearly only in the following year, when miners begin to feel the real impact of this scarcity. The expectation of a more "rare" Bitcoin leads to a new wave of purchases by investors, which begins to drive the price up.

Characteristics: During this period, the market can be more grounded in real supply and demand factors. The narrative around Bitcoin strengthens, and companies and institutional investors begin to enter with greater force. The price tends to rise in a more sustained manner, reflecting the real scarcity of the asset.

Possible repetition of the cycle: This phase can be marked by a more "founded" appreciation, which lasts until the next halving, and the cycle begins again.