#USBitcoinReserves Chances of a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fade

The disappointment of US Sovereign Wealth Fund policymakers for not paying attention to BTC only added insult to injury.

In January, instead of creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Trump created a working group chaired by Solana and Multicoin investor David Sacks to propose assets for a digital asset reserve.

Binary options betting site Polymarket is accepting bets with a dismal 18% probability that the US government will hold any amount of BTC in its reserves before April 29, 2025. That betting rate plummeted from 48% just two weeks ago. Kalshi’s betting odds are higher (48% betting odds for a US bitcoin reserve before 2026), though they are still at the low end of their range from November 2024.

Trump Technically Never Promised an SBR

After the thunderous applause that greeted Donald Trump’s speech on July 27, 2024 at a Bitcoin conference, anticipation for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve continued to grow until Trump was sworn in as president. Disappointment immediately took over.

To be clear, a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve has at least three variants. The weakest form, a “strategic reserve” in name only, is simply a rebranding of the federal government’s existing reserve of criminal seizures.

Even this branding exercise would not involve purchases and would likely include non-BTC assets like BNB, TRX, and even FTT.

The Bitcoin Policy Institute proposed the second basic version of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve that would simply use the US Treasury’s discretion to purchase a modest amount of BTC using clever tactics like gold revaluation or its Exchange Stabilization Fund.

This version has access to some funds.