1. In-depth analysis of investment failures
1. Contract trading: the deadly temptation of bloodthirsty leverage
(1) Insufficient accumulation in the spot market: most investors have not completed their original capital accumulation before rashly entering high-leverage areas
(2) Psychological traps: dopamine addiction caused by short-term windfall profits leads to uncontrolled positions
(3) Market mechanism: the high leverage nature of derivative trading determines its high-risk essence; the exchange liquidation mechanism is like a precisely designed meat grinder
2. Chaos in the primary market
(1) Ponzi scheme: a flower-passing game packaged in a Ponzi structure, with an average survival period of no more than 180 days
(2) Proliferation of 'meme' projects: 2023 data shows the survival rate of newly issued MEME tokens is less than 0.7%
(3) Cognitive misconceptions: misjudging speculative behavior as value investing, confusing short-term hype with long-term value
2. Methodology for value discovery
1. Technical value assessment system
(1) Virtual machine innovation dimension
- Execution efficiency: breakthrough improvement in TPS (e.g., Solana's 65000+ TPS)
- Developer friendliness: EVM compatibility and completeness of developer tools
- Cross-chain interoperability: protocol layer design supporting multi-chain asset interactions
(2) Open-source audit standards
- GitHub code update frequency: quality projects have weekly commits > 20 times
- Smart contract verification: must pass third-party audits such as CertiK, SlowMist
- Degree of decentralization: number of node distribution and concentration of staked tokens
2. Token economic model deconstruction
(1) Scientific nature of issuance mechanism
- Initial circulation ratio: controlling between 20%-30% is a healthy range
- Unlocking period: team tokens released linearly for at least 36 months
- Destruction mechanism: a real burning model combined with transaction fees
(2) Pathways to create scarcity
- Bitcoin-like halving mechanism: a deterministic expectation of halving supply every four years
- Staking lock-up: annualized yield of staking is negatively correlated with circulation
- Practical scenario consumption: real demand in scenarios like gas fee consumption, NFT minting, etc.
3. Capital ecosystem perspective
(1) Institutional endorsement matrix
- Tier 1 institutional participation: strict due diligence by top VCs like a16z, Paradigm
- Strategic partners: infrastructure service providers like AWS, Google Cloud
- Developer fund scale: an ecological support plan of no less than $50 million
(2) Quality of community building
- Developer community: over 1000 active contributors on GitHub
- User community: Discord/TG group natural growth rate exceeds 3% daily
- Governance participation: DAO proposal voting rate remains above 30%
3. Practical decision-making framework
1. Three-dimensional verification method
(1) On-chain data verification: tracking real on-chain interactions through Dune Analytics
(2) Ecological progress verification: growth curve of DApp quantity within 6 months after the mainnet launch
(3) Market consensus verification: coverage rate of mainstream trading pairs on the top 50 exchanges by CMC
2. Risk hedging strategies
(1) Portfolio configuration: single project investment no more than 5% of total position
(2) Staged position building: 50% cornerstone round + 30% private placement round + 20% public offering round
(3) Exit mechanism: set tiered profit-taking points at 3x/5x/10x
Conclusion: A new paradigm of value investing
After experiencing market clearing in 2022-2023, the primary market is presenting structured opportunities. Data shows that investors who adhere to value discovery in bear market projects have 73% achieving over 10x returns in bull markets. It is recommended to establish a three-dimensional cognitive system of 'technical insights + economic models + capital context', continuously tracking quality Launchpads like CoinList/DAO Maker, and using on-chain analysis tools like Nansen/DeFiLlama to grasp real alpha opportunities in the Web 3.0 value internet revolution.