cc牛
--
Bullish
Today I added 8 more $BNB , and I am now fully invested in BNB, accumulating over 1200 in total.
In my opinion, this bull market requires us to lower our expectations.
Firstly, the four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency space is akin to carving a boat to seek a sword; the bull and bear markets in crypto essentially follow U.S. policies. Before 2018, it was all about playing within the circle, and a few whales could manipulate the market; from 2017 to 2021, and into 2025, the crypto space began to closely link with U.S. institutions. It’s possible that Satoshi Nakamoto foresaw this and intentionally designed the four-year halving to align with the U.S. economic cycle, starting from the 2008 financial crisis.
Having said all of this, I want to express that this bull market is a BTC bull market, accompanied by a small bull market for mainstream coins. This round is characterized by interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. If we say there will be an altcoin season in 2025, currently 99% of altcoins have fallen back to the levels of 2022 and 2023. Even if they multiply several times, many people may not recover their investments. Can this still be called a widespread rise? Not to mention whether there will be an altcoin season or not...
Returning to the performance of $ETH and BNB, they belong to the older mainstream. ETH reached over 4100+, just a step away from its previous high, while coins like BSV, ETC, BCH, LTC, including Doge, are still far from their previous highs. These were the stars of earlier rounds, similar to SOL this round. It's normal for ETH not to reach its previous high. Take Dogecoin, for example; it is a typical case of a fierce contender that has no remarkable achievements. The drop is so severe that most people cannot bear it, and it appears to rise well. However, under such favorable news push, with Musk promoting it and a joint effort from government efficiency departments, it still cannot reach its previous high. Viewed this way, ETH is doing quite well and is strong; I believe it deserves to be recognized for its second market cap, unlike others that may double but remain far away from recovery. BNB surged upward for a moment before deflating; that’s considered a normal performance. XRP, the American coin, mainly sees the revival of previously dead coins that no one bought. SOL, another American coin, is expected to challenge ETH, while other older coins are experiencing some level of hype. This bull run has done its best, but most retail investors are accustomed to carving boats to seek swords, dreaming of altcoins collectively rising tenfold, which would be a charitable act for the main forces and institutions.
Lowering expectations is wise. The previous high points for many coins were due to the U.S. emergency QE and zero interest rates causing anomalies. We all know that data analysis requires the exclusion of anomalies, as they hold no reference value. Therefore, we should not blindly pursue breaking previous highs or expect a widespread rise in altcoins.
In my opinion, this bull market requires us to lower our expectations.
Firstly, the four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency space is akin to carving a boat to seek a sword; the bull and bear markets in crypto essentially follow U.S. policies. Before 2018, it was all about playing within the circle, and a few whales could manipulate the market; from 2017 to 2021, and into 2025, the crypto space began to closely link with U.S. institutions. It’s possible that Satoshi Nakamoto foresaw this and intentionally designed the four-year halving to align with the U.S. economic cycle, starting from the 2008 financial crisis.
Having said all of this, I want to express that this bull market is a BTC bull market, accompanied by a small bull market for mainstream coins. This round is characterized by interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. If we say there will be an altcoin season in 2025, currently 99% of altcoins have fallen back to the levels of 2022 and 2023. Even if they multiply several times, many people may not recover their investments. Can this still be called a widespread rise? Not to mention whether there will be an altcoin season or not...
Returning to the performance of $ETH and BNB, they belong to the older mainstream. ETH reached over 4100+, just a step away from its previous high, while coins like BSV, ETC, BCH, LTC, including Doge, are still far from their previous highs. These were the stars of earlier rounds, similar to SOL this round. It's normal for ETH not to reach its previous high. Take Dogecoin, for example; it is a typical case of a fierce contender that has no remarkable achievements. The drop is so severe that most people cannot bear it, and it appears to rise well. However, under such favorable news push, with Musk promoting it and a joint effort from government efficiency departments, it still cannot reach its previous high. Viewed this way, ETH is doing quite well and is strong; I believe it deserves to be recognized for its second market cap, unlike others that may double but remain far away from recovery. BNB surged upward for a moment before deflating; that’s considered a normal performance. XRP, the American coin, mainly sees the revival of previously dead coins that no one bought. SOL, another American coin, is expected to challenge ETH, while other older coins are experiencing some level of hype. This bull run has done its best, but most retail investors are accustomed to carving boats to seek swords, dreaming of altcoins collectively rising tenfold, which would be a charitable act for the main forces and institutions.
Lowering expectations is wise. The previous high points for many coins were due to the U.S. emergency QE and zero interest rates causing anomalies. We all know that data analysis requires the exclusion of anomalies, as they hold no reference value. Therefore, we should not blindly pursue breaking previous highs or expect a widespread rise in altcoins.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
0
0