The four-year cycle of #比特币四年周期将改变？ btc (usually associated with the 'halving event') may change depending on the combined effects of multiple factors such as technology, market, miner behavior, and external environment. Here are the key points of analysis:

**1. Will the halving mechanism itself change?**

- **Code rules remain unchanged**: The halving cycle of Bitcoin (the block reward is halved every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years) is set at the protocol level. Unless the community reaches a consensus to modify the code, the cycle will not change. Currently, there are no signs that the community would support such modifications.

- **Long-term impact**: After all Bitcoins are mined in 2140, block rewards will rely entirely on transaction fees, but by then the four-year cycle will have ended, which is unrelated to the current discussion.

**2. Is it possible for market cycles to weaken?**

- **Historical patterns**: After the last three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin experienced significant price increases, forming an expectation of a 'halving-bull market' cycle. However, this pattern may be disrupted by the following factors:

- **Market maturation**: The growth of institutional investors (such as ETFs and publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin) and the derivatives market may suppress extreme volatility, making price movements more complex.

- **Macro environment impact**: Global monetary policy (such as interest rate hikes/cuts by the Federal Reserve), geopolitical risks, and increased correlation with traditional financial markets may overshadow the supply-demand logic of the halving itself.

- **Advance pricing**: Market participants may buy in advance due to expectations of the halving, leading to front-running of prices and weakening the upward momentum post-halving (for example, the performance before the 2024 halving).

**3. Miner behavior and network security**

- **Post-halving pressure on miners**: The reduction in block rewards may lead some miners to exit, and the decrease in hash power could raise short-term concerns about network security. If Bitcoin prices do not rise concurrently, this effect will be more pronounced.

- **Increase in transaction fee proportion**: As on-chain activities increase with protocols like Ordinals, transaction fees may gradually compensate for the reduction in block rewards, which may alleviate miners' sensitivity to the halving in the long run.