The four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin (#比特币四年周期将改变？ ) will still be one of the core narratives, but its impact on price may gradually shift from a 'single event-driven' approach to a 'multi-factor resonance'. Investors need to pay attention to:

1. **The combined effect of halving and macro cycles** (such as the 2024 halving coinciding with expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts);

2. **Changes in on-chain data** (such as the proportion of long-term holders and exchange reserves);

3. **Regulatory and technological breakthroughs** leading to structural changes.

In short, Bitcoin's cyclical fluctuations will not disappear, but their manifestations may become more complex, requiring dynamic assessment of the market environment rather than mechanically applying historical patterns.