$ETH The following is an analysis of the ETHUSDT perpetual contract shorting strategy based on current data:
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### **Key Judgment Basis**
1. **Price position**: The current price is **2,594.76 USDT**, which has fallen **16.4%** from the 24-hour high (3,106.12), but is still in a violent fluctuation range.
2. **Technical indicator signals**:
- **KDJ J value 96.34**: Close to the overbought threshold (100), but in a downward trend, beware of the "rebound trap".
- **MACD-Histogram turns positive (7.59)**: Short-term downward momentum weakens, which may trigger a rebound.
- **Moving Average System**: Prices are still suppressed by short-term moving averages (e.g. EMA does not have a clear value, but the price is below the 24-hour central axis).
3. **Market Sentiment**: The 24-hour volatility is nearly 50%, with a trading volume of 35.1 billion USDT, indicating fierce long and short competition.
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### **Feasibility Analysis of Shorting**
#### **Reasons Supporting Shorting**
1. **Trend is Bearish**: Significant declines in the medium to long term (7 days, 30 days) (-21.69%, -27.20%), with bears still dominant.
2. **Rebound Resistance Area**: If the price rebounds to **2,800-3,000 USDT** (Near the 24-hour high), it may form a technical resistance level, suitable for shorting on rallies.
3. **J Value High Risk**: If the J value breaks above 100 and then retreats, it may accompany a second price bottom.
#### **Shorting Risks**
1. **Short-Term Rebound Possible**: MACD bars turn positive and the J value has not reached 100, which may trigger an oversold rebound (target 2,800-2,900).
2. **Extreme Volatility Risk**: The price is close to the 24-hour low (2,080.19). If it falls below this point, it may accelerate the decline; however, if it stabilizes, it may rebound.
3. **Timestamp Anomaly**: The screenshot time shows 2025; it needs to be confirmed whether it is real-time data (if it is simulated or delayed data, the conclusion may be invalid).
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### **Operation Suggestions**
#### **Shorting Strategy (Conservative)**
1. **Entry Conditions**:
- Price rebounds to **2,800-2,900 USDT** (Near the 24-hour mid-high level).
- KDJ shows a death cross (the K line crosses below the D line) or the J value retreats below 80.
2. **Stop Loss Settings**:
- Short-term Stop Loss: **3,000 USDT** (If it breaks through the previous high, the trend may reverse).
- Dynamic Stop Loss: If the price rebounds and then retreats, the stop loss can be adjusted down to 1-2% above the entry price.
3. **Target Take Profit**:
- First Target: **2,400 USDT** (Recent support level).
- Second Target: **2,100 USDT** (Approaching the 24-hour low).
#### **Shorting Strategy (Aggressive)**
1. **Short at Current Price (2,594 USDT)**:
- Conditions to be met: The price must fall below **2,500 USDT** and the MACD bars must shorten (indicating exhaustion of rebound momentum).
- Stop Loss: **2,700 USDT** (To prevent rebounds from breaking short-term resistance).
- Target: **2,200-2,000 USDT**.
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### **Key Points for Risk Control**
1. **Position Management**: The position of a single trade should not exceed 5% of total funds, and leverage should not exceed 5 times (easy to get liquidated under high volatility).
2. **Combine with Real-Time Data**: If the current data is not real-time (timestamp 2025), the indicators need to be re-verified.
3. **Pay Attention to Market Events**: News such as ETH ecosystem upgrades and regulatory policies may trigger significant price fluctuations.
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### **Summary**
- **Can attempt to short, but with caution**: There is a short-term rebound risk, it is suggested to wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level (2,800+) or confirm a drop below 2,500 before taking action.
- **Core Logic**: The trend is bearish, but it is necessary to avoid the "bull trap" of short-term rebounds.
- **Priority Strategy**: **Short on rallies (2,800+)** is preferred over chasing prices at current levels.
