Analysis of the Last 24 Hours and Possible Scenarios for #Ethereum ($ETH )
### Situation Summary
- Current Price: 2513.11 (03/02/2025 07:45:40), near the lower limit of the Value Area (2453.65–2874.7).
- Key Dynamics:
- Strong sell-off between 02:00 and 03:00 on 02/03, with a low at 2100 and high volumes (>72k ETH).
- Next bounce to 2487.5 (POC) and consolidation between 2450–2567.
- Bearish market structure: the price is below the Initial Balance (3082.6–3122.99) and the Open Range (3082.6–3114.78).
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### Key Market Profile Elements
1. Value Area (VA): 2453.65–2874.7
- 70% of the volume was concentrated in this range, indicating a current "fair value" area.
- The price is near the lower limit of the VA, signaling weakness.
2. POC (Point of Control): 2487.5
- Maximum volume level: break below could accelerate the downtrend.
3. Balanced Target (BT): 1864.65
- Theoretical target in case of continuation of the bearish trend, below the recent historical minimum (2100).
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### Probable Scenarios and Actions
#### Scenario 1: Maintaining the Value Area (2453.65–2874.7)
- Conditions: Price stabilizes above 2453.65 (VA lower limit) and POC (2487.5).
- Actions:
- Long verso 2600–2700: Con stop loss a 2450.
- Watch 2874.7 (VA upper limit): Breakout could indicate recovery towards 3000+ (test Initial Balance).
#### Scenario 2: Break below VA (2453.65)
- Conditions: Close below 2450 with increasing volumes.
- Actions:
- Short towards 2100: Target on the recent historical low.
- Balanced Target (1864.65): Secondary target in case of extreme sell-off (monitor liquidity and news).
#### Scenario 3: Bullish Recovery (Unlikely but Possible)
- Conditions: Close above 2874.7 (VA high) with sustained volume.
- Actions:
- Long aggressivo: Target su 3000–3122 (Initial Balance High).
- Stop loss at 2750 to manage risk.
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### Risk Factors and Monitoring
- High Volumes at 2100: Bounce from this level suggests short-term support. Break below 2100 would open the door to new lows (BT at 1864.65).
- POC (2487.5): Critical level for short-term equilibrium. A defense of this price could indicate accumulation.
- External News/Events: Any macro announcements or updates on Ethereum could alter the dynamics (e.g. forks, regulations).
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### Recommended Operational Strategy
1. Short-term (Intraday):
- Sell at break of 2450 with target 2100.
- Buy above 2550 (post-bounce range test) with target 2700.
2. Medium-term:
- Wait for confirmation of a trend (e.g. close above 2874.7 or below 2100) before making large directional trades.
3. Risk Management:
- Use dynamic stop losses (e.g. 2-3% from entry price).
- Limit exposure to 2-5% of capital per trade, given high volatility.
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Conclusion
The market shows clear bearish pressure, but the critical levels (2453.65 and 2100) could offer trading opportunities. The proximity to the POC and the low VA calls for caution, with preference for reactive strategies to breakouts/bounces.