Weekly Technical Analysis for $TAO
1. Trend and Momentum:
- Strong downside from high of 498.0 (29/01) to low of 372.6 (02/02), closing at 388.5.
- High volume on 27/01 (34k) and 01/02 (10k), signaling distribution during the breakdown.
- Price below the Value Area (VA: 393.6-449.1), indicating short-term bearish pressure.
2. Supports and Resistances:
- Critical Support: 385.8 (IB low) and 372.6 (02/02 low).
- Immediate Resistances: 393.6 (VA lower limit) and 446.3 (POC).
- A breakout above 393.6 could trigger a rebound towards 449.1 (VA high).
3. Market Profile Dynamics:
- POC at 446.3 signals an area of maximum historical liquidity, a potential target for any recovery.
- The price is currently in the lower 30% of the profile, a typical area of speculative increases or breakdowns.
Probable Scenarios:
1. Bearish Breakout Scenario
- Conditions: Breakout below 385.8 with increasing volume.
- Target: 372.6 (low of 02/02), followed by 360.0 (psychological extension).
- Confirmation: Close below 385.8 and increasing volume.
2. Sideways Scenario (Range-Bound)
- Conditions: Price fluctuates between 385.8 and 393.6.
- Strategy: Range trading with tight stop loss (e.g. 385.0 / 395.0).
3. Bullish Reversal Scenario
- Conditions: Bounce from 385.8 and close above 393.6 (VA low).
- Target: 449.1 (VA high) and 446.3 (POC).
- Confirmation: Increasing volume and breakout of 400.0 (psychological level).
Trade Ideas:
- Short Entry: Breakout below 385.8 with target 372.6. Stop loss at 390.0.
- Long Entry: Bounce from 385.8 + close above 393.6. Target 430.0 (mid-VA). Stop loss at 380.0.
- Aggressive Reversal: Buy near 372.6 with stop at 365.0, target 400.0.
Conclusions:
The market is at a critical pivot between the historical support (385.8) and the bearish pressure. The break below 385.8 would open the door to new lows, while a rebound above 393.6 could indicate a recovery towards the VA