Weekly Technical Analysis for $TAO

1. Trend and Momentum:

- Strong downside from high of 498.0 (29/01) to low of 372.6 (02/02), closing at 388.5.

- High volume on 27/01 (34k) and 01/02 (10k), signaling distribution during the breakdown.

- Price below the Value Area (VA: 393.6-449.1), indicating short-term bearish pressure.

2. Supports and Resistances:

- Critical Support: 385.8 (IB low) and 372.6 (02/02 low).

- Immediate Resistances: 393.6 (VA lower limit) and 446.3 (POC).

- A breakout above 393.6 could trigger a rebound towards 449.1 (VA high).

3. Market Profile Dynamics:

- POC at 446.3 signals an area of ​​maximum historical liquidity, a potential target for any recovery.

- The price is currently in the lower 30% of the profile, a typical area of ​​speculative increases or breakdowns.

Probable Scenarios:

1. Bearish Breakout Scenario

- Conditions: Breakout below 385.8 with increasing volume.

- Target: 372.6 (low of 02/02), followed by 360.0 (psychological extension).

- Confirmation: Close below 385.8 and increasing volume.

2. Sideways Scenario (Range-Bound)

- Conditions: Price fluctuates between 385.8 and 393.6.

- Strategy: Range trading with tight stop loss (e.g. 385.0 / 395.0).

3. Bullish Reversal Scenario

- Conditions: Bounce from 385.8 and close above 393.6 (VA low).

- Target: 449.1 (VA high) and 446.3 (POC).

- Confirmation: Increasing volume and breakout of 400.0 (psychological level).

Trade Ideas:

- Short Entry: Breakout below 385.8 with target 372.6. Stop loss at 390.0.

- Long Entry: Bounce from 385.8 + close above 393.6. Target 430.0 (mid-VA). Stop loss at 380.0.

- Aggressive Reversal: Buy near 372.6 with stop at 365.0, target 400.0.

Conclusions:

The market is at a critical pivot between the historical support (385.8) and the bearish pressure. The break below 385.8 would open the door to new lows, while a rebound above 393.6 could indicate a recovery towards the VA